Drone strikes on Russia, Zelenskyy ready to approve arms exports. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russian attack on Ukraine

Terrorism versus self-defense – that sums up the overnight confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, with drones and long-range weapons. Overnight, Russia launched five ballistic missiles at Ukraine – likely Iskanders or North Korean KN-23s, still being verified. Two were shot down. They also launched over 187 drones, 81 of which were downed; the rest lost track.

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital twice yesterday, using both ballistic missiles and drones. Eight people were injured, including four children, and two were killed. Russia also launched drone attacks on five Ukrainian regions, targeting civilian infrastructure. These are deliberate acts of terror aimed at destroying Ukrainian cities and intimidating people to undermine resistance. Russia's actions are systematic acts of terror.

Important defense and industrial facilities attacked in Russia

Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian strikes on Russia may have been the largest attack using drones and missiles, with reports of up to 447 long-range missiles and drones. However, the Ministry of Defense did not mention these strikes yesterday.

This could be to avoid dampening the mood of those heading to Red Square in Moscow, as well as to avoid sending pessimistic signals to the Russian public.

Ukrainian strikes primarily targeted airfields and defense-industrial sites in Russia. NASA’s global fire monitoring system has recorded fires at two Russian airbases: Shaykovka and Kubinka. Shaykovka, located in Kaluga region, houses Russia's Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and stores Kh-22 missiles.

We hope these strikes were effective and caused damage to those specific weapons. The second airfield, Kubinka, is in Moscow region, near the capital. It is home to the Russian “Sokols” and “Strizhs,” which were set to perform at Red Square. We’ll see if the show goes on after the airfield was hit. While we hope the strikes were successful, the full outcome is still unclear, as satellite imagery isn’t yet available.

At least five Russian defense industry facilities were hit in the latest strikes. The most notable target was a fiber-optic systems plant in Saransk, which is the only producer of optical fiber in Russia. This fiber is used in communication systems and, notably, in Russia's fiber-optic drones. This plant has been targeted before, and we hope these latest strikes were more effective than previous ones.

Also in Saransk, the Saranskkabel plant, which produces Russian communication systems, was hit. In the Tula region, the Instrument Design Bureau was attacked. This is one of Russia's key enterprises, responsible for developing various weapon systems, including combat modules and anti-tank systems.

Just about a kilometer from the Instrument Design Bureau is another facility, Splav, which has been developing and producing all of Russia’s multiple launch rocket systems since Soviet times. This includes the Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado systems, as well as munitions for the Solntsepyok systems, including thermobaric warheads. Strikes were carried out on both of these facilities.

The fifth facility is located in Moscow region, in Krasnoarmeysk: the Bazalt Scientific-Production Association. Bazalt produces a wide range of munitions, including thermobaric warheads, anti-tank grenade launchers, and more. It also develops and manufactures aviation munitions, including aerial bombs. So, the selection of these targets is entirely legitimate.

All this weaponry is used by Russia against Ukraine and its citizens. These are the strikes that need to be carried out, and it is crucial that they are effective.

Thanks to a powerful drone attack, many Russian civilian airfields have activated the Kovyor (Carpet) plan, which prohibits civilian planes from taking off. I believe these attacks will help the Russian population experience what war is truly like. It’s likely that these approaches by Ukraine will continue into May 9.

Although Peskov stated yesterday via TASS that Russia’s calls for a ceasefire remain in effect, he also mentioned that internet access in Russia would be restricted, among other measures, to ensure maximum security.

Russia prepares for May 9 parade 

We discussed Russia and the broader situation with Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, military analyst, and co-founder of the Consortium for Defense Information.

Putin called for a ceasefire during the parade in Russia. A significant number of air defense systems have been deployed to Moscow, internet access is being restricted to make it harder to monitor events, and even the use of electric scooters has been banned. They are also again mentioning Oreshnik — if Ukraine strikes Moscow, Russia will use Oreshnik for attacks on Ukraine. The political backdrop is mainly tied to the situation surrounding the parade and the "Victory Day" celebrations in Russia.

"A very telling moment on May 9th, 2025. Putin is trying to use this to solidify the legitimacy that Trump gave him. It’s unclear whether this is due to his inexperience, ineptitude, or if he’s genuinely recruited. But for Putin, the main goal is to preserve his regime and maintain his ambitions for capturing and controlling Ukraine. The next step will be to control the space within the borders of the USSR, and then the entire post-Soviet space. These are the three major goals for Putin, which haven’t changed, and now he’s trying to solidify them with the little headway he gained through Trump. But if we look at Kyiv’s decisions now, it’s crucial not to play Putin’s game. Instead, Ukraine should keep Moscow in a difficult, tense situation until the parade, so that Putin’s guests, especially Xi Jinping, feel that Putin is not in a victorious position. He’s in the position of an uncertain, unclear leader of an uncertain country," he said.

Valentyn Badrak noted that it is currently difficult to assess the readiness of the stockpiles of drones and missiles for May 9, but this will become clear soon.

"Moving forward, today’s situation demonstrates that even the Kremlin's intention to continue offensive operations is not based on what I would call realistic factors. Even the one-and-a-half-million strong army in Russia cannot do anything to create effective strike forces, let's say, and make any significant moves on a strategic or even operational-strategic level. I think the most Putin will be capable of is continuing the campaign through the summer, trying to push through and capture small territories. But I like the statements from authoritative Ukrainian military figures, especially those involved with drone technologies, who are now saying that the role of drones is only increasing, not decreasing. And if, a week or so ago, the former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Zaluzhnyi, called tanks, armored vehicles, and helicopters essentially powerless and a thing of the past - well, ships can be added to that list. Even artillery is losing ground due to the increasing range, strike distances of drones, and the weight of their payloads," said the military analyst.

Ukrainian arms exports 

Based on what is needed on the battlefield and what Ukraine can produce with its own resources, the question naturally arises about whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to authorize the export of products made by Ukraine’s defense enterprises. Valentyn Badrak outlined the potential pros and cons of such a decision, as well as whether the expectations of Ukrainian defense industry stakeholders to earn significant income from these exports will be justified.

"Here we have several interconnected issues. First of all, the president is already somewhat of a hostage to these ideas and the pressure being exerted by major associations such as the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, and various technological alliances like the Technological Forces of Ukraine, NAUDI, and the League of Defense Enterprises. And all this is related to the fact that arms exports have, in reality, not stopped - and they are, by the way, not legally prohibited. Arms exports have continued in a concealed and controlled manner. For example, spare parts for An-32 aircraft were supplied to India, and our aviation engines for drones were sent to Turkey. All of this is extremely important given that India is a large and powerful market that is turning away from Russia. And, for instance, Turkey - because of its strong drone technologies - can help bolster Ukraine’s unmanned aviation in the future. So, all of this is under close scrutiny.

The other issue is how to properly enter the arms market. In my opinion, to avoid political harakiri, Ukraine should enter the market together with its partners, at least until the hot phase of the war is over," the expert noted.

Valentyn Badrak noted that such opportunities do exist. Ukraine has proven that it possesses some technologies that are even superior to those of the West.

"Let me mention a few examples. Out of four companies selected to produce drones for the U.S. Army, the United States chose two Ukrainian ones that make cheaper and more technologically advanced models. Recently, Bloomberg reported a dispute involving the powerful German company Hensoldt, I believe, which offers drones at €16,700 each, while Ukrainians dismantled them and said the real price should be €2,000, not €16,000. In other words, Ukrainians have made impressive advancements that are recognized in Europe.

Previously, Nico Lange - who headed the Adenauer Foundation in Ukraine and is now a military expert - stated that Ukrainian electronic warfare systems outperform their Western counterparts. I can give an example: the Ukrainian alliance New Energy of Ukraine independently, without state involvement, reached an agreement with the major German manufacturer Diehl Defense. It is now supplying protective solutions for IRIS-T air defense systems and remotely controlled artillery units like the RCH," said Valentyn Badrak.

Ukraine has great prospects, in part because it has become a market. CIPRI, an independent international institute for the study of conflict, arms, arms control and disarmament, has shown that over the past four years, Ukraine has increased its imports 100 times and has become more attractive for joint ventures. 

“For example, the well-known American company AeroVironment has already established production of the well-known Switchblade drones in Ukraine. And all of this can then be supplied jointly, because it’s several times cheaper. Let’s take the Bohdana self-propelled artillery system. The Bohdana is produced by a private Ukrainian company, with more than 20 units manufactured, and some say even 36 units. I won’t speculate on the numbers, because perhaps they included towed guns as well. But the cost of the Bohdana is 2.5 million dollars. The French CAESAR, made by Nexter, costs 4–6 million euros. German self-propelled artillery systems like the Panzerhaubitze or the RCH cost 11–17 million euros. One artillery shell now costs over 8,000 euros. Ukraine produces them for 1,800 euros. So it turns out that Ukraine manufactures them 8–10 times cheaper.

If it enters the market jointly with foreign countries....The Czech Republic has already realized this and granted a license for the production of ammunition and joint assault rifles. And just the other day, they showcased a joint Ukrainian-Czech drone called Bulava, which is very interesting. It’s notable because it carries a 3.6-kilogram warhead and has a range of 60 kilometers,” he said.

Valentyn Badrak noted that he agrees with authoritative military figures who say that the war may stall in the summer. A continuous kill zone may be formed - that is, a zone under full control of drones, up to 40 kilometers wide.

“And this will mean that the positions will actually be such that the political plane and the ability to stay in the political and economic plane will play a greater role. I would like to draw attention here to the fact that even if Trump withdraws from Ukraine, there is a very interesting solution - to involve Turkey. And Erdogan is very interested in using this situation to enter Europe. First, to enter the European Union. Despite the fact that Erdogan says that the Turkish army is the most combat-ready army in European NATO. And, indeed, if Erdogan agrees to block Russia in economic and political terms and provides more weapons, and in the summer we will have Baykar, the Turkish one will start working, which he promised us Bayraktar. And we will be able to order, among other things, Bayraktar TV2, Bayraktar TV3, which are already extremely powerful. So I know that we are moving towards technological superiority over the enemy. And it is the arms market that can create such technological pressure on Russia. When Russia is actually in a technological noose and will not be able to rapidly develop high-tech weapons on the scale it has been able to do before,” he said.

The military expert emphasized that the arms market is one of the elements of technological superiority. The only thing is that it cannot be done uncontrollably now.

“The state, of course, can control three things. The first is the state defense order, the level. The second is the issuance of licenses for export contracts, and the third is lobbying within the Danish model, because there are already statements that there will be a billion euros for this year from the European Union in grants for the Ukrainian defense industry. And Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defense and Space, said that “40 billion, if we provide it, will be great, because Ukraine makes weapons 10 times cheaper and can take care of, in fact, ensure the security of Ukraine and Europe.” So this is a very promising business. The only thing is that there is a danger of the terrible administration that exists. Let me remind you, if only the directors of the plants and heads of military acceptance are responsible for the failure with the mines, and not the current Minister of Strategic Industries, Smetanin, and his head, Kamyshin, together with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. If this does not happen, the military-political leadership will sign its incapacity,” emphasized Valentyn Badrak, military expert, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.