Dismantle Ukraine and seize Odesa: Russia’s true intentions?

Despite a certain honeymoon phase in personal relations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Western intelligence agencies remain vigilant, exposing the true intentions of each player. According to The Washington Post, an unnamed European intelligence agency has revealed a highly revealing document outlining Russia’s harsh demands in peace negotiations.  

The document explicitly states that Russia’s primary goal is the ‘complete dismantling’ of Ukraine’s current government to create internal political chaos.  

Another key objective is to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by fueling tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while simultaneously continuing efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state. This is a stark reminder that Ukrainian officials and media figures must be cautious about their statements on social media—because scoring points in a dispute at the White House could ultimately cost Ukraine its sovereignty.  

Moreover, Russia has not abandoned its plans to fully occupy Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. FSB analysts are pushing narratives about establishing a demilitarized zone in the south, including parts of the Odesa region. Unsurprisingly, Russian propagandists and Medvedchuk’s media ally Diana Panchenko have recently started amplifying the question: 'But whose is Odesa, really?'

The document, written in February by a Moscow-based think tank close to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), outlines Russia’s maximalist demands for any resolution to the war in Ukraine. "It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as impossible to realize and says that 'a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026,'" writes the Washington Post. Intelligence sources report that Russian security services are strongly advising their negotiators in Saudi Arabia to disrupt any discussions regarding peacekeepers from Western countries. 

If we compare this leak to reality, it appears Russian negotiators are paying close attention to the advice from FSB analysts. 

The document states that Russia’s initial efforts should focus on normalizing relations between Washington and Moscow by restoring full diplomatic staffing at the embassies of both countries and appointing Alexander Darichev as Russia’s ambassador to the United States. 

Further, seasoned intelligence officers advise shifting the Ukrainian issue to a secondary concern and pushing for a major agreement between the U.S. and Russia. 

One proposal includes an agreement whereby Russia would refrain from deploying its medium-range ballistic missiles Oreshnik in Belarus, on the border with the European Union, in exchange for the United States agreeing not to deploy new missile systems on the continent.

It also mentions that Russia would stop supplying weapons to countries considered "hostile" to the United States, while the U.S. would halt its arms supplies to Ukraine. However, it adds that stopping the supply of Russian weapons to Moscow’s allies would be "difficult to implement."

This article, based on intelligence data, appeared in an American outlet amid some very interesting news. Among Americans, there is growing concern about President Donald Trump’s "too close ties" with Russia. Currently, Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 44%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. 

However, 56% of respondents – including 89% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans – agreed with the statement that Trump is too close to Moscow.

The publication of such an article in one of the most influential U.S. media outlets could crash the American president’s ratings. It might reveal that our leader is not an alpha male, but rather a rag that former KGB agent Putin drags by the nose across a wet floor. 

For Ukrainians, this article is also useful because it’s better to know Russia’s true intentions rather than delude ourselves with the predictions of tarot-reading Zoomers who promise peace soon. 

The Russian Federation has been struck by the Ukrainian Defense Forces but has not given up on its idea of becoming a great empire again through the assimilation of the Ukrainian nation and the occupation of its strategic resources – such as industrial giants and access to key ports. 

Therefore, it’s time to change the narrative about "just stopping the shooting" and technical negotiations for a ceasefire and focus more on preparing for a new phase of war. With a peace plan like the one proposed by Trump’s people, this will be 100% certain. 

At the same time, it wouldn’t hurt to look for people in Trump’s inner circle with whom Ukraine can negotiate for interesting deals. Not long ago, the White House’s chief political strategist and head of the Administration, Susan Wiles, began regularly sitting next to JD Vance during all of the president’s meetings. It’s interesting why we haven’t yet met this woman, whom Trump listens to almost exclusively in silence?

Exclusively for Espreso