Diplomatic theater and negotiations: Trump vs. Putin vs. sensible people

The first thing to understand is that diplomacy today isn't just about secret talks. In our age of populism and digital media, ritual, gestures, and ceremony still play a big role, just like in the Middle Ages. How something is said or done can matter as much as what is actually said. What we’re seeing now is the return of ritual-driven politics. Real decisions aren’t made entirely in secret — the public and private sides of diplomacy are closely connected.

Trump’s gamble on Putin has failed. Remember how Trump believed he could “make a deal” with Putin? That he could pressure Ukraine to give in and turn Putin into an ally against China? That plan has collapsed. Why? Because Putin has no interest in making deals on Trump’s terms or joining the West. A deal between them isn’t possible now.

So, no matter how much Trump wants easy wins, he has to go back to using pressure: sanctions, aid to Ukraine, and diplomatic moves. There’s no other real option, given Russia is a nuclear power, and Americans don’t want to fight directly. But this approach is hard for Trump. He likes quick results and wants to get out of this.

That’s why the recent “negotiation ritual” has three main goals for Ukraine and its European partners:

• Keep Trump’s attention: They need to constantly show him (based on his personality) that Putin won’t negotiate, breaks promises, and doesn’t respect him. The goal is to prove that pressure is the only way.
• Increase pressure on Moscow: Show that the Kremlin refuses to cooperate. This helps justify new sanctions and more aid for Ukraine.
• Strengthen the coalition: Push back against leaders like Orbán and Fico, who play along with Moscow, and keep the EU united on sanctions. Trump’s influence is also necessary here.

Why doesn’t Putin want peace now? The main reason is Putin himself. Ending the war now is more dangerous for him than continuing it.

Why? Shifting to a peacetime economy is hard and costly. Bringing home hundreds of thousands of veterans could create social unrest. The elites are unhappy because the gains don’t match the losses. Restarting the economy would need huge investments, but no one is willing to provide them.

So for Putin, the current state (war as a tool of control, a way to get rid of the marginalized, and a source of profit for elites) is easier to manage. Even though this path leads to collapse, like slow self-destruction from alcoholism.

Real negotiations will only start when continuing the war becomes more dangerous for Putin than ending it. That will happen only if:

1. Russia faces a deep economic crisis.
2. The army becomes too weak to keep fighting.
3. A serious social-political crisis breaks out inside Russia.

What next?

The "dancing" around Trump will continue. Until real negotiations begin, we’ll keep seeing these diplomatic rituals. Putin will try to isolate Ukraine, while Ukraine and allies work to isolate him. And the claim that Trump "brought Putin out of isolation" is nonsense — just look at who showed up at the parade in Moscow.

Right now, most of Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts are aimed not at Putin, but at Trump. The goal is to keep his attention and convince him that Putin can’t be trusted to negotiate. It’s a tough task — managing the behavior of two very peculiar people. With Putin, things are clear: he only responds to pressure. But with Trump, Ukraine has to maneuver carefully.

I’m 99.9% sure there won’t be a lasting ceasefire anytime soon. The war will likely continue until Russia’s army and economy are exhausted. Ukraine’s job, and the job of its allies, is to keep up the pressure — on Putin to push for peace, and on Trump to help pressure Putin.

So, we stay calm. There’s still a lot of this spectacle to play out. But the goal makes it worth it.

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About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, expert in strategic communications in the field of business, public administration and politics

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.