Dangerous Russian advances, direction of efforts is obvious. Column by Serhiy Zgurets

Situation on the front line

Let’s start with the situation on the front line. The most intense fighting is now in the Pokrovsk direction — more precisely, at the junction of the Pokrovsk and Toretsk sectors — where, according to OSINT analysts, the situation is quite difficult. First of all, reports have emerged about Russian forces advancing into Toretsk itself and near several settlements along the Pokrovsk axis, particularly Romanivka and Novoolenivka.

Ukraine Russia war live map, May 3-10, Photo: Espreso

Romanivka is located along the Avdiivka–Kostiantynivka road, and Novoolenivka sits on the T-0504 route: Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad–Kostiantynivka. Over the past two weeks, heavy fighting has broken out in this area, with Russian troops pushing toward the highway to Kostiantynivka. This is a 9 km stretch where Russian advances have been recorded in at least three places — east of Malynivka, in the southern part of Nova Poltavka, where fighting continues, and inside Novoolenivka itself. The highway has been shelled before, but it remains vital for the logistics of Ukraine's units, which are holding positions in the lowlands near Kostiantynivka and around Toretsk.

Judging by these developments, the direction of Russia's efforts is pretty clear — an attempt to break through to Kostiantynivka from the south and southwest. Kostiantynivka is Ukraine's first fortress, though maybe calling it a “fortress” is not entirely accurate. But we understand clearly: Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka are the gateway to the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration, which is the main objective for the invaders.

In Novoolenivka, the defensive line started to crumble around early May, when Russian forces began advancing toward Tarasivka. For some reason, they managed to push 4 km forward, and there hadn’t even been any mining of the area before their move. After that, intense fighting broke out, and now Russian troops are already fighting inside Novoolenivka.

Reserves have been moved in from both our side and the Russian side. This part of the front remains extremely tough. I believe the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces needs to draw the right conclusions, because Russia's push in this direction is seriously dangerous. And those conclusions should lead to strengthening this part of the line.

About the Defense Industry Forum in Brussels

We’ll talk not only about the front, but also about weapons. The second Defense Industry Forum took place in Brussels, where European and Ukrainian defense companies discussed areas of cooperation. The event was attended by EU leadership, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries, and representatives of numerous Ukrainian and European defense firms.

At least 100 companies joined from the European side, and around 30 companies and specialized associations represented Ukraine. Against the backdrop of the ongoing threat from Russia, the EU and its member states are preparing not only to boost their own defense capabilities but also to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons and technology, while helping develop Ukraine’s defense sector.

The forum also addressed the ReArm program — Europe’s €800 billion rearmament plan. Of that, €650 billion is aimed at strengthening defense in EU countries, and €150 billion will be available as credit to buy Ukrainian weapons in cooperation with European companies. This is a major initiative meant to become the foundation for deepening cooperation between Ukrainian and European defense firms.

We’ll now discuss in more detail what happened at the forum, what initiatives were announced, and what impact all of this may have on Ukraine’s defense industry.

Artem Viunnyk, director of the company Athlon Avia, said the mood from both EU officials and European arms producers was positive, with strong interest in working with Ukrainian manufacturers. Talks on joint projects are ongoing. In the near future, more and more cases will emerge of Ukrainian companies teaming up with European ones, primarily to supply weapons to the front line in the war with Russia. Of course, there’s competition because when a Ukrainian company enters the European market, it can be seen as a threat to local players. By the way, this issue was raised at the forum with EU officials. If the question is raised, it means it’s on the table. So, there’s a feeling of caution in how cooperation is approached, but still, Ukrainian and European companies are getting closer. We shouldn’t expect breakthroughs tomorrow, but the momentum is much stronger than, say, six months ago.

The director of Athlon Avia also noted that European partners can't buy Ukrainian models without involving local companies. For example, Danish Ministry of Defense representatives said they’ve helped and continue to help, but constantly helping without return isn’t sustainable. They’re interested in joint ventures, sharing capabilities, and expanding production in Europe. Ukrainian companies need to carefully think through how to protect their engineering talent and intellectual property. Right now, there’s a position not to release design documentation or export certain products. But from a broader perspective, this approach is flawed. If we’re unwilling to partially share or co-develop products through joint ventures, then all these talks about cooperation will collapse. That would mean losing the only real opportunity to attract funding. And if we ban intellectual property transfer completely, nothing will move forward.

The Ukrainian manufacturer added that there’s a serious problem and a real threat facing Ukraine’s defense industry: the inability to sell abroad or work with foreign partners. If current laws prevent the export of domestically produced items, then future developments will simply happen outside Ukraine and intellectual property will be created outside Ukraine too. We need to weigh short-term risks and consider the long-term consequences. If the situation doesn’t change, then in 2–3 years, most defense products "made in Ukraine" will actually be assembled from large components produced abroad just owned by Ukrainian companies.

Viunnyk concluded that Athlon Avia currently has contracts and deliveries within Ukraine, but entering foreign markets and working with international partners won’t harm the supply of products for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That will always remain the top priority.