Budapest trap

From his perspective, it looks logical: scare - get a reaction - leave a trail of uncertainty.

The Tomahawk threat means the time limit for which Putin persuaded Trump in Alaska has expired. Recall that back then, Putin painted for Trump visions of major breakthroughs on the front, reaching the borders of Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian capitulation. It didn’t happen (I will continue to argue that the foundation of Ukraine’s agency lies in its Armed Forces).

“Time’s up. No Nobel for Trump. In the U.S., the campaign season begins. The White House wants to flex its muscles before China.”

Why Budapest? Because Trump wants the honors that Orbán (a real sycophant) will arrange for him; he’s doing everything to win re-election in the spring. But Orbán will also roll out the red carpet for Putin - no doubt about that. A kind of “European Yanukovych,” trying to cozy up not to two, but three leaders. Xi isn’t enough.

Ultimately, Trump’s latest conversation with Putin may hold a small positive for us - Russia might (possibly) refrain from striking energy targets over the next few days. However, Putin’s promises to prepare for the Budapest summit do not yet constitute a final decision to attend. He could simply “fall ill” while Trump waits for his agreement. For now, only high-level delegation meetings have been announced.

The meeting between Trump and China at the end of October will be more decisive. It’s still uncertain because it’s hard for Trump to negotiate with China while Putin is constantly hovering nearby.

It seems Trump still lives under the illusion that he can pull Moscow away from Beijing. And if the reports that Putin offered a deal on rare‑earth minerals are true, that proposal could once again steer Trump onto the wrong path. It would be far easier for him to cut a deal with Beijing to jointly milk that “raw‑materials cow” to exhaustion.

A brief summary before Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy: Putin has gained another 2–3 weeks (or 2–3 months?) - time he will try to use to undermine the White House’s intent to change the U.S. “show of force” strategy toward Russia.

We’ve been through this before.

But Trump doesn’t need the process now—he needs results. Inspired by the Middle East deal, he wants to add another star to his suit. The start of the congressional campaign must be spectacular.

The key is not to get into a Budapest fiasco like in Alaska.

Source

About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.