Belarus forms special brigade near Ukraine border: is new invasion possible?

Belarus is creating a new unit — the 37th Separate Airborne Assault Guards Brigade — as part of its Special Operations Forces.

According to the official explanation, the brigade is being formed to strengthen the country’s southern flank. The commander of Belarus' special operations forces, Denisenko, called the south “the most restless direction,” and said it was the key reason behind the decision.

“A decision was made to reinforce the southern sector. Today, it’s the most tense area — one that keeps us all alert,” he said.

In other words, Belarus is building a mobile strike unit right next to Ukraine's border.

Let’s look at the structure of the Belarusian Armed Forces and how likely they are to be used in the current regional security context.

The Belarusian army has limited offensive capabilities, and forming new units likely plays into a broader geopolitical strategy by Lukashenko to boost his domestic and international standing.

The Armed Forces of Belarus number around 55,000. Of those, 15,000 are civilian staff. The Land Forces have up to 24,000 troops.

Each year, around 50,000 conscripts are called up. The trained reserve includes roughly 290,000 people. About a quarter of active personnel are contract soldiers.

The most combat-ready units are three brigades: the 38th Guards Separate Mobile Brigade (Brest), the 103rd Guards Separate Mobile Brigade (Vitebsk), and the 5th Separate Special Forces Brigade (Marina Gorka).

These are the best-trained and best-equipped units, making up the backbone of Belarus’ military power. Still, the Belarusian Constitution bans its troops from fighting abroad, limiting any direct involvement in the war with Ukraine.

In my view, the creation of this new brigade isn’t about launching an attack on Ukraine. It’s more likely that Lukashenko is using it as a tool to pressure the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) and Poland, countries he sees as unfriendly. The new unit can serve to project strength and boost Belarus’ position in the region.

There are also up to 4,000 Wagner PMC fighters currently in Belarus. I believe this new brigade might be designed to counter their influence internally. During the last presidential elections, Wagner could have been used to destabilize Lukashenko’s regime, making them a potential threat.

The third reason for creating the brigade could be Lukashenko’s move to tighten control over internal affairs and resist growing Russian pressure.

Belarus remains an important geopolitical player, with its decisions influenced by both China and the United States.

It’s worth recalling that at the height of tensions last year, joint Belarusian-Chinese exercises were held. They effectively shut down Russia’s attempts to destabilize the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and use that area again as a launchpad for an invasion of Ukraine.

In other words, China signaled to Russia that it sees Belarus as part of its own military-political sphere and has no interest in destabilizing the country. In fact, China views Belarus as a platform for expanding its political and economic reach into Europe.

In my view, the U.S. presence will be a second line of defense, if not to stop, then at least to reduce the odds of another Russian invasion from Belarusian territory.

Another point worth noting: on June 21, Alexander Lukashenko met in Minsk with Donald Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Kellogg became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Belarus in recent years. Back in 2020, during Trump’s first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk, the highest-level U.S. visit in two decades.

After that meeting, the U.S. signaled that it might ease Russian military-political pressure on Lukashenko. And those signals mattered, Russia already treated Belarus almost like its own backyard. The U.S. also gave the green light for certain economic moves. Most notably, the lifting of sectoral sanctions on Belarusian potash exports, which helped local producers return to global markets. Belarus is, in effect, a monopoly in that sector.

So, both China and the U.S. have no interest in seeing Russia expand its military aggression through Belarus, especially not toward NATO countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

It’s also important to note that after Russian forces were pushed back from the outskirts of Kyiv in spring 2022, Ukraine drew key conclusions. The military presence along the border was reinforced. Defensive engineering, technical, and fortification work was stepped up and continues. People in Kyiv can see it for themselves, and even more so in Chernihiv. Meanwhile, mining operations continue to block tank movements and enemy advances.

Tactical drills are also regularly held, focused on repelling a potential invasion from Belarus.

As a reminder, in February this year, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Russia plans to prepare 15 divisions, some 100,000 to 150,000 troops, by 2025 to ramp up pressure from Belarus.

Then in April, Zelenskyy said Russia could be preparing something for summer 2025, again under the guise of military exercises. “Look at Belarus: this summer, Russia is preparing something there, under the guise of military exercises. That’s how its new offensives usually begin. But where this time? I don’t know. Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? But we all have to be ready. All our institutions are open to cooperation,” he said.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the”Prava Sprava” NGO

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.