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Avdiivka’s fate will be decided in next 48 hours — former platoon commander of Aidar battalion

16 February, 2024 Friday
09:58

Yevhen Dykyi, former platoon commander of the Aidar battalion, believes that if Russia is not ousted from the lifeline in the coming days, the Avdiivka garrison may need to withdraw to a prearranged defensive line

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"In fact, the situation is absolutely critical. I may be wrong, but I think the fate of Avdiivka will be decided in the next 48 hours. The thing is, unfortunately, the enemy has already cut the only artery there, the lifeline that carries all the logistics of the Avdiivka garrison. No matter how powerful a fortress the Coke Plant is, sustaining it without logistics is impossible. As long as the supply line remains open, ammunition can be transported, and wounded personnel can be evacuated, the fight can continue. However, with this route now severed, it is evident that the 3rd Assault Brigade, specialized in offensive assault operations in urban environments, has been deployed to the area. It is clear that they were tasked with unblocking the garrison in Avdiivka and pushing the enemy back from the road," commented the former platoon commander of the Aidar battalion.

In his opinion, if the Ukrainian forces can successfully push Russian troops back at least one kilometer from the road within the next one or two days, restoring positions held 2-3 weeks ago, there could be a possibility of bringing in reinforcements and reinitiating the defense.

"If we fail to do this in a day or two, I think the units that have now entered as assault troops will be tasked with organizing a corridor for our garrison to leave. I won't speculate which of these two scenarios will work, because this is war. The Russian manpower there is at least ten times stronger, and the enemy has also deployed the last of the special forces units there, which are professionally trained in contact fighting in urban areas. The situation there is really terrible. So we will either manage to push the enemy away from the road or have to retreat. We are still trying to unblock the city. On the positive side, I can say that it will definitely not be like Bakhmut, when the retreating units had to dig trenches immediately. Here, the second defense line has already been prepared," noted Yevhen Dykyi.

Ukrainian Armed Forces comment on the situation around Avdiivka

Dmytro Lykhoviy, spokesman for the Tavria operational and strategic group of troops, said on the United News telethon that the situation in the city remains tense but under control. 

"In Avdiivka, our units are maneuvering to relocate to more favorable positions, sometimes to retake positions. Supply and evacuation are complicated, but the reserve logistics artery, which was prepared in advance, is being used," said Lykhoviy.

According to him, Russian forces seek to get to the west of the Coke Plant, but they will face "decent resistance" there.

Latest news on the Avdiivka direction

A veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, National Guard of Ukraine reserve major Oleksiy Hetman, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not going to leave Avdiivka yet. 

On February 14, the commander of the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said that in two months of 2024, Russian forces had carried out the largest number of air strikes on the positions of the Ukrainian military in the Avdiivka direction.

There were 64 combat clashes on the frontline during the day. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 61 attacks in 8 sectors. Most of them were in the Avdiivka and Marinka directions.

Defense Express expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi suggests that the destruction of the Russian convoy in the Avdiivka direction indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces likely have reserves in place to defend Avdiivka.

War live map for February 8-14: the situation at the front is deteriorating, Avdiivka has the last chance to be saved.

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