Attack on Estonia: what is Putin willing to trade for ‘peace’ in Ukraine?

In The Hague, on the sidelines of the NATO gathering, U.S. President Donald Trump made a striking comment: he suggested that Putin’s territorial ambitions stretch beyond Ukraine. 

Around the same time, Die Welt published a revealing interview with former NATO official Admiral Rob Bauer. The reporter asked him directly whether NATO would strike back immediately if Putin decided to test the Alliance by attacking, say, a small village in Estonia. Bauer answered that the response would depend on the nature of the attack — and that Article 5, the cornerstone of NATO's collective defense, wouldn't automatically apply to a minor incursion.

Estonian officials know full well that the Kremlin dreams of sparking a “people’s republic” somewhere in the city of Narva, where Russian speakers make up a majority. Putin could once again play the “protection” card — defending Russian-speaking citizens from supposed Estonian “nationalists.” On June 22, Russia’s Il-76 military aircraft entered Estonia’s airspace without permission and stayed there for nearly four minutes.

Moscow continues testing NATO’s borders — and nerves — especially those of smaller member states like Estonia that once suffered under Soviet occupation.

 But why would Putin consider striking Estonia, of all places?

First, he wants to terrify NATO and expose it as weak — the same fear-based narrative modern Russia feeds its citizens as state ideology. Second, a limited attack could fracture Western unity. A crisis like that would allow the Kremlin to fish in muddy waters — and maybe even swap a chunk of NATO territory for Western silence on Ukraine or support for Russia’s version of a “peace plan.”

Israel’s strike on Iran recently robbed Putin of a key bargaining chip. Until now, he had dangled himself as a mediator with Tehran during cozy chats with Trump. But with Washington’s help, Israel hit Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without needing Russia. Trump reportedly acknowledged this in NATO backrooms, saying he no longer needed Putin’s “help” — and that the Kremlin should sort out its own war in Ukraine.

This all shrinks Russia’s window of opportunity to appear strong. And while Moscow stirs trouble, its neighbors keep stepping up. Countries now host military drills and stock up on weapons. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine taught every border country one thing: don’t stand there unarmed.

Trump’s tone may have changed because someone finally dropped intel on his desk. Reports now warn that Russia might attempt a “small victorious war” on NATO’s doorstep. No surprise then that Secretary of State Marco Rubio started rehiring National Security Council staff that Elon Musk — the erratic billionaire with a soft spot for weed and bad ideas — had previously fired.

So why target Estonia? First, it’s small and accessible — with a large Russian-speaking population stuck in the past and resistant to change. Second, Putin’s old plans to cut across the Suwałki Gap fizzled. While some countries still hope Ukraine and Russia will “meet in the middle, like in 2015,” Poland took no chances. Back in 2022, Warsaw began building Europe’s largest land army. Sure, Poland faces challenges: a shrinking pool of recruits, outdated weapons factories, and economic pressure. But in raw firepower, they’ve got plenty. And if Russia crosses that line, the Poles will shoot — no brotherly talk, no hesitation.

Even more critical: Belarus wants no part in Putin’s next war. Alexander Lukashenko has been hedging his bets. He’s cozied up to China, shook hands with Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg, and even released opposition figure Siarhei Tsikhanouski from prison after five long years — all to play both sides.

Estonia, though, gives Russia access to the Baltic Sea. Without control of that region, Russia’s navy could find itself beached — or boxed in. Finland, Sweden, Latvia, and Lithuania don’t sit idle. If needed, they’ll act. Best case for Moscow? The Baltic Fleet just sits in port while World War III plays out on land and sea.

Putin doesn’t want the war in Ukraine to end. Even a shaky truce could threaten his power — and the wealth of the surrounding elite. Pulling back from “liberating” anyone would force him to face domestic failures and the stream of coffins returning from Sumy and Pokrovsk.

Europe sees the danger. For the first time, NATO named Russia a strategic threat in its summit declaration. And NATO states are exiting the Ottawa Convention, which bans the use and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines.

Just now, Poland’s Sejm voted overwhelmingly to leave the convention. “Poland cannot be bound by any restrictions that prevent it from defending its homeland,” said Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

Hard not to feel a lump in your throat remembering how, before 2022, Ukraine ran reports on mine clearance efforts near Mariupol — as if peace would hold forever.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author: Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaieva, journalist.

The editorial board doesn't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.