Another Russian offensive on Kharkiv...

Let's dot the I's and cross the T's at once.

The threat to Kharkiv was, is and will be until the war is over. But the threat should be assessed rationally and thoughtfully, not frantic and reckless.

The narrative itself was introduced through Meduza media outlet, which, although it is considered conditionally opposition, is a Russian information resource, and everything Russian is a diagnosis. 

Let's talk about the threat to Kharkiv on the example of Avdiivka.

During the offensive on Avdiivka, the Russian occupation forces involved 80,000 troops in the peak phase. There were about 15,000 in reserve. Compensation for irretrievable losses (killed) exceeded 20,000 bodies. Thus, in the five-month offensive on Avdiivka, on the area of 29 km² was involved about 120,000 people. And this I did not even begin to calculate the compensation of recoverable losses (wounded) during the entire offensive.

And now the question. What grouping of troops is needed to launch an offensive, encircle and deploy urban fighting in Kharkov? And is it present now or will it be present in the foreseeable future near the border with Kharkiv region?

The answer is simple. At least 500,000 troops, fully equipped and having a reserve of at least 100,000-150,000 personnel. With the formation of such a strike grouping we can talk about the growing danger for Kharkiv, but that is the point, that there is no such number of Russian occupation troops even in the temporarily occupied territories in the combat zone. Moreover, Russia has no possibility to provide such a grouping in a short period of time, and it is a very long and quite obvious process, to which there will be a corresponding reaction.

Take a deep breath and filter your information more carefully.

Source

About the author. Oleksandr Kovalenko, Ukrainian military expert, journalist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.