“A one-sided marriage Ukraine can’t leave”: Analyst says Kyiv has no real alternative to U.S. partnership

What do these carefully chosen phrases really mean — and what can Ukraine expect moving forward? Political analyst Yevhen Mahda, director of the Institute of World Policy, explained the implications during a broadcast on Hromadske Radio.

For U.S. President Donald Trump, it was “a big day for NATO.” Wrapping up the summit, he praised allies for finally agreeing to a key demand he first made during his presidency in 2018: NATO countries committed to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade.

While last year’s communiqué mentioned Ukraine 63 times, this year’s document is more concise, with just five key paragraphs — but Ukraine still features prominently. Alongside the support pledge, the alliance explicitly named Russia as a long-term threat.

According to Mahda, NATO’s 10-year plan for ramping up defense spending should be read in direct connection with the “long-term threat” phrasing. But, he cautioned, “This won’t happen all at once. Not every country will do it. Some simply can’t or won’t — because it would strain their social programs, healthcare systems, and development funds. It would make them less attractive politically.”

Still, Mahda emphasized the value of the security-focused language: “The recognition of Russia as a long-term threat is a correct and necessary framing. And it sets the foundation for how that 5% will be spent — not just on traditional defense, but also on infrastructure, cybersecurity, and strategic readiness.”

On NATO’s pledge to help Ukraine “within the limits of their sovereignty,” Mahda called it a positive signal. “But let’s not overestimate it. We shouldn’t expect tens of billions of dollars immediately,” he said.

Addressing Trump’s relationship with NATO leaders, Mahda added, “Nothing is absolute with Trump. No one has 100% influence over him. But it’s better to engage than to stand back and stay silent.”

As for U.S.-Ukraine relations, Mahda said: “It’s an unequal marriage — one that Ukraine can’t leave for many reasons. So, we have to endure it and wait for better days.”

Read also: NATO summit outcomes for Ukraine