2026: Ukraine on brink of internal collapse over two key failures

This is not little, though it is insufficient. Europe continues to support us politically, although the situation with close neighbors is worsening. In 2026, there is a very good chance of getting rid of Orbán, for the first time in many years. But Babiš, the Prime Minister of Czechia, is actively trying to take his place. One way or another, there will be no sharp changes in Europe's support for us in 2026.

We have learned to work with Trump more or less, and we are avoiding such failures as last year's meeting in the office. Also, together with the Europeans, we are managing to restrain his flight of fancy. We will have to endure his pressure more than once, and harsh pressure at that, but at least we are now reacting correctly to it and not forgetting that there is no position that Trump wouldn't change.

Along with this, in the internal situation we are heading toward collapse due to two positions.

The first is the corruption scandal, which has severely undermined trust in the authorities. The personnel rotations that have been launched cannot solve this problem.

"According to my information, hundreds of Verkhovna Rada deputies are on NABU recordings, as well as the president's closest circle. Even closer than Yermak. The situation is so bad that finding candidates for ministers from the team who are not on the recordings is very difficult."

And powerful independent people do not want to cooperate with the authorities under these conditions. NABU still has not published anything about defense, and there is such horror there that the Hrynkeviches will seem like petty thieves to you. All of this will result in a continuation of the management crisis, especially against the backdrop of a worsening situation at the front.

The second is the failure of mobilization. I have been writing for two years that "busification" will not solve the mobilization issue. Finally, the minibuses are exhausting their potential. Ultimately, we as a nation are exhausting it, considering that millions have left. The only solution for us is to reduce the mobilization age. But, as you know, the authorities promised not to do this. Two years of thoughtless combat strategy have led to colossal exhaustion of units in terms of personnel. Mass cases of unauthorized absence from unit, which should have been combated by spreading good military leadership, continue and will gain even more momentum in 2026.

"Mobilization is now the key issue for us for the next year, and either we solve it, or we will be signing a bad agreement."

All of this means that we are ready to sign a peace agreement. Mobilization and effective management only determine which agreement exactly we will sign. Here I am skeptical.

In 2026, elections will definitely take place. This will be connected with the peace process. I predict presidential elections in summer, parliamentary and local elections in autumn. Overall, this will be a difficult year for us, most likely unpleasant in the political dimension, but no catastrophe will occur.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.