Trump's first 100 days: how uncertainty may end war

I’ve always maintained that Putin has no intention of stopping. But he could be stopped by the economy - and by the unpredictability of the one person the Russian dictator placed so much hope in: Donald Trump.

After Trump’s first 100 days in office, the situation feels like we’re back where we started. Putin shows no intention of stopping - on the contrary, he's making even harsher demands of Ukraine. Ukraine continues to defend itself, relying on support from allies, especially the U.S. Meanwhile, the American administration has failed to offer even a basic plan to end the war - only announcing another set of “100 days for peace.” The same as before.

“The paradox is that the biggest factor influencing the possibility of peace today is uncertainty. It is this uncertainty that forces the Kremlin either to go all in or to scale back its aggression while saving face.”

At the beginning of the year, the chances of ending the war by the end of 2025 seemed nonexistent. But now, the war could stop at any moment - not thanks to diplomatic efforts, but due to economic pressure, logistical challenges, and the Kremlin’s own strategic confusion.

In April, the Stockholm-based SIPRI institute calculated that, accounting for inflation, Russia’s military budget is growing by just 4% - a drop in the ocean given the intensity of the fighting. To maintain the current pace, Putin must invest simultaneously in weapons procurement and payments to new contract soldiers. But the budgeted funds don’t allow for both. The Kremlin is forced to either choose or seek new sources of funding. And there are none: sanctions, falling oil prices, pressure on the ruble. Devaluation could be a solution - but at the political cost of growing public unrest and destabilization.

“So, if the war doesn’t end soon, Russia will have to make choices that will either wreck its economy or make it impossible to continue fighting. But there are no viable choices.”

And this is the result of that very same uncertainty. Moscow had already been preparing to celebrate a "victory over Ukraine," dreaming of the return of Western businesses, the lifting of sanctions, and a joint fight with Washington against "Euro-fascism." But Trump's unpredictability is shattering those plans. Putin now faces a choice: either end the war while declaring himself the victor, or keep bluffing - at the risk of everyone finally seeing he has no real cards to play.

It is hard to say whether the war will end quickly. But if it does, it will be not least because of the political fog that the new White House administration is producing with such gusto.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of Ukrainian Parliament.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.