Terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall in Russia - small latent coup d'état?

We need to start with the fact that we still cannot fully understand what it really was. Both the ISIS version has inconsistencies (the main one is the lack of an ideological base for the killers) and the Russian version raises too many questions (primarily because of disorganisation).

In the end, this is important, but secondary now. For me, the sharp radicalisation of the entire Russian vertical, which is already being demonstrated at all levels, is more important:

• innovations with the return of the death penalty;
• the change in Peskov's rhetoric and the obvious ban on any roundabout statements;
• the tough stance of the Russian ambassador to Poland and the demonstration of unnecessary aggressiveness;
• the use of Zircon missiles, etc.

All of this together tells us about a sharp shift in the balance of power towards the most radical elements. And behind all this, we can see, first of all, the head of the Russian Security Council, the No. 2 politician in Russia, Nikolai Patrushev.

I would like to point out that in recent years there has been a rapprochement, and with the full-scale invasion, we can talk about the tandem of Patrushev and Rostec CEO Chemezov (who is among the top 5 politicians in Russia in terms of influence). The combination of these two figures now guarantees complete superiority over all other towers.

In other words, we are witnessing a sharp increase in the influence of one group with the silent consent of all the others. Moreover, we see everyone else adjusting to the new reality.

Of course, all of this needs to be followed up, but so far it looks like Putin's own structure has taken its partner in a firm grip and is taking away its gap to create certain balances. The main gap, by the way, is negotiations. All of Russia's rhetoric is now saturated with aggression and does not imply any compromises, even in detail.

I repeat, we need to keep an eye on this for now, because the situation is not static, but is evolving every day. And there is no need to wait for personnel decisions. We need to keep an eye on the rhetoric, first and foremost. If this hypothesis is confirmed, it will mean a withdrawal from any negotiations and a sharp move towards turning Russia into Iran. The only advantage of this is that Patrushev will put the economy at the expense of the war.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs