The flood in Orsk for the first time fixed the contours of a new social contract in Russia. And this agreement is very encouraging for us.
1. Until 2022, the social contract was reduced to the formula: “We provide you with normal welfare, you do not prevent us from stealing and playing geopolitics.” Over the past two years, Russians have been offered a different contract: “You will live worse than before, but we will give you greatness, and you stay out of our business.”
Orsk unexpectedly made (or rather outlined) the adjustments: "You will live worse than before, but we will give you greatness, and you will stay out of our business. But if we fail, you will be to blame and you will pay for everything.”
2. The new formula applies not only to Orsk, where people refused to evacuate because of looters, but also to Kurgan, where people were told to provide themselves with a month's (!) supply of water, to Belgorod, where farmers were ordered to provide themselves with EWs, and so on. Suddenly, the Russians found themselves in a situation where the authorities are lying not for the sake of any benefit, but because they are powerless.
“This is one of the basic points for the desacralization of power.”
However, the problem is that Orenburg and Kurgan are far away. And Moscow residents are not particularly concerned about their problems. Although we should definitely not underestimate all these things. After all, what we see is a classic example of a very big injustice that has affected large numbers of people. At the same time, it is impossible to follow the classic path and quickly dismiss the governors: it would mean showing weakness.
3. At the same time, the current situation shows gaps in the capabilities of information warfare on Russian territory. I have repeatedly written that 2024 is a year of small black swans for the Kremlin. But these swans will remain small amid the fact that our information capabilities are unfortunately limited, the Russian opposition is experiencing a genre crisis and is clearly not on the Russian agenda, and the collective West (primarily the United States) has de facto abandoned information warfare on Russian territory.
About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.
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