Russia needs two weeks to stockpile 100 missiles. Serhiy Zgurets column

Russia has launched 90 missiles at Ukraine today, November 15.

Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure facilities and cities. According to preliminary information, the enemy launched up to 100 cruise missiles and focused on striking central and northern Ukraine. Local authorities in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr cities and in the regions reported electricity supply issues. Objects of critical infrastructure were clearly the target, because there was no information that cruise missiles hit military objects. This is a typical terrorist attack aimed at disrupting the Ukrainians’ will to resist. Russian troops once again launched X-101 and X-555 missiles from Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic aircraft. The bulk of the missiles were fired from strategic bombers from Caspian and Rostov regions. Also, the rest of the missiles were of Kalibr type and launched from the Black Sea. We have analyzed the previous waves of Russian missile attacks, starting October 10, and found that Russia needs about two weeks to accumulate a stockpile of 100 missiles, which they then fire at Ukrainian infrastructure. We believe that the enemy has planning and missile supply issues. Although we understand that the stockpile of long-range, high-precision missiles is running out, still, even one missile can bring significant destruction.

According to the spokesman and representative of the President's Office, Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down more than 70 of the 90 missiles. In Kyiv, 18 of the 21 missiles launched were downed. These are good results. We can see that IRIS-T systems from Germany already help to protect Kyiv, and more modern NASAMS systems, which have been transferred to Ukraine from the US as military aid, may be protecting other areas.

Ramstein expectations

Another meeting in the Ramstein format, which will focus on what equipment should be prioritized for supplying to the Ukrainian army, is coming up. I think that the topic of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems supply will again be timely and extremely relevant. Perhaps it will prompt the transfer of anti-missile systems to Ukraine, in particular, the SAMP-T system manufactured in France and Italy. We take into account Italy's previous statements that it is ready to provide such equipment to Ukraine. These attacks raise the question: what is Russia’s next step? It seems that this massive missile attack was revenge for Ukraine’s major victory on the right bank of the Kherson region, where we pushed the enemy out of the right bank of the Dnipro River, and now Russia is looking for any excuse to give the appearance of securing some victory.

Russian losses on the right bank of the Kherson region

Reserve colonel and expert of the Center for Defense Strategies Viktor Kevliuk noted that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not report the actual achievements of the Ukrainian army until a certain time passes, so that the enemy does not have a correct idea about the true state of affairs on the battleground. Thus, loss of control, chaos and panic do not allow the enemy to collect their thoughts and properly assess the resources they have at their disposal at the moment.

Russian losses amount not only to what is destroyed on the battlefield, but also what has become AFU’s trophies. These numbers have never been published. I personally spoke with people conducting the operations in the Kherson direction. They say that Russian troops left behind on Dnipro’s right bank a little less of the equipment compared to what they have left behind retreating from Izium, Kharkiv region, but the numbers are still significant.

Besides, Russian units that operated on the right bank were mainly airborne troops armed with amphibious assault vehicles. I am inclined to believe that a huge amount of Russian military equipment became Ukraine’s trophies, and that concludes the major part of Russia’s losses.

Directions of Russian units' relocation from Kherson region

Reserve Colonel Viktor Kevliuk explained the prospect of Russian units relocating from the Kherson direction. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine applied the tactic of softening the enemy, which means that those Russian units who were deprived of management, logistics, and heavy equipment moved to Dnipro’s left bank. Considering what happened on the right bank, we observed that Russia did not reinforce its right bank group. Accordingly, this direction was clearly not considered the main one. Rather, it was an operation to bind part of the Ukrainian forces and prevent them from relocating units to more important combat zones.

What is important for Russian troops, apart from ​​Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Pavlivka directions, is unclear at this point. Russia did not reinforce its troops in other directions. Therefore, we can conclude that these three key points - Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Pavlivka - are the most crucial for Russia.

Since the Crimean bridge can no longer be used for supplying the Russian army, the Kremlin has focused on the railway road from Rostov-on-Don via Ilovaisk to Jankoy. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have this road under fire control in certain areas. So, in order to secure this direction, Russia will relocate part of its forces to Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and reinforce the group in the Zaporizhzhia region, in the Vuhledar direction.

The most obvious thing to do would be to cut the enemy's communications to Melitopol or Berdyansk. But the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repeatedly made decisions the enemy found unexpected: for instance, the Kharkiv region counteroffensive, and advancing in the Kreminna - Svatove area, the Kherson direction operations, which were also sudden and fatal for the enemy. Therefore, I believe we should not expect from the Armed Forces the standard solutions that anyone can come up with.