Russia may replace guided bombs with drones due to risks in the air – analyst

Ukrainian military analyst Vasyl Pekhno shared his opinion with Espreso TV.

“The Russians still have the resources to continue such bombings (with KABs – ed.). But here, of course, a very important psychological factor comes into play, influencing whether the next Russian pilot sortie will take place, as they now have to consider the risk of being shot down again (after the Ukrainian Defense Forces downed a Su-34 in the Zaporizhzhia direction on September 25 – ed.). Clearly, the Ukrainian Air Forces did not use any asymmetric or extraordinary measures when downing this Su-34, which it deserved. But this situation may last for some time, until the Russians determine whether it is safe for them to continue bombing or not. In any case, they will try to keep carrying out bombings in those front-line areas or towns they are targeting. Moreover, what concerns me now is not so much the continued use of KABs themselves, although they remain very sophisticated weapons and are extremely terrorist and criminal, particularly against the civilian population,” he said.

Vasyl Pekhno believes that Russia plans to replace guided bombs with strike drones due to threats to their aviation.

“But the Russians are gradually, as it seems to me, preparing to replace KABs, realizing that their aviation may not be as effective in the foreseeable future as it has been, for example, until now. They are replacing KABs — we all know, hear, and see the news about strike drones. I have already mentioned them in the context of strikes on training grounds, frontline training grounds. Likewise, drone strikes on frontline territories include Shaheds, modified Shaheds with cameras that allow direct radio guidance. Besides Shaheds, other drones are used, such as the Molniya, which recently became a drone launcher. So, in my view, the Russians are gradually preparing to replace their KABs with a drone component,” he believes.

The military analyst also noted that it is necessary to consider the context that FPV drones are expanding their areas of influence.

“Currently, on the front line, this buffer zone or ‘red kill zone’ is 10–20 kilometers, for both us and the enemy. But detection systems are now very deep, while strike capabilities are still progressing through their technological cycle to become deep-strike systems. I think this will happen sooner or later. The same goes for strike FPV drones. In the end, Shaheds in FPV mode have already become an initial form of response to these challenges. So here, we need to think not only about KABs — we need to ask our local communities and central authorities what we can do if drones, for example, achieve a range of 60–70 kilometers, creating a kill zone. Then this issue concerns not only Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kherson, but undoubtedly Sumy and Chernihiv as well. This is a very, very relevant topic,” emphasized Vasyl Pekhno.

• On the morning of Thursday, September 25, Ukraine’s Defense Forces shot down a Russian Su-34 aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia sector.