Russia may need years to recover from bomber losses caused by Ukraine’s strikes

Reuters reported the information.

Satellite imagery of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north reveals extensive damage from the attacks, with several aircraft completely destroyed. There are conflicting reports regarding the exact number of aircraft destroyed or damaged.

According to two U.S. officials, the United States estimates that up to 20 warplanes were hit, with around 10 destroyed. This is about half the number claimed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and insisted the damage would be repaired. However, Russian military bloggers reported the loss or serious damage of around a dozen aircraft and blamed commanders for negligence.

The strikes — planned over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation called "Spider’s Web" — used drones smuggled close to the airbases inside trucks. They delivered a powerful symbolic blow to a country that has repeatedly invoked its nuclear arsenal throughout the war in Ukraine.

In practical terms, experts say the strikes won’t significantly impact Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities, which are mainly based on ground- and submarine-launched missiles.

However, the bombers targeted — Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire models — are part of Russia’s long-range aviation fleet used extensively to launch conventional missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, defense facilities, power grids, and other critical infrastructure, said Justin Bronk, an aviation specialist at the London-based RUSI think tank.

These same bombers have also conducted periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, the North Atlantic, and the northern Pacific, acting as a show of force to deter Western adversaries.

At the start of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Bronk said, Russia operated around 50–60 Bear-Hs, about 60 Backfires, and roughly 20 Tu-160M Blackjack nuclear-capable bombers.

Bronk estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of its combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, considering last weekend's attacks and earlier losses — one aircraft shot down and others hit while grounded.

These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters.

Russia’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Production delays

Replacing these bombers will not be easy. Both the Bear H and Backfire were designed during the Soviet era and have not been in production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, an aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Although these aircraft have been upgraded, building exact replacements seems unlikely, and it's unclear whether any usable spare airframes exist.

Western sanctions on Russia have aimed to block imports of vital components, such as microprocessors used in avionics systems. However, Barrie noted that Moscow has had some success in sourcing alternative supplies.

Russia has been upgrading its Blackjack bomber fleet. Last year, President Vladimir Putin sent a strong message to the West by taking a 30-minute flight in one of the aircraft and declaring it ready for service.

But the production rate of new Blackjacks is low — one Russian military blogger recently claimed it is only four per year. Meanwhile, progress on Russia’s next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been slow, according to Western experts.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a recent report that Russia signed a contract with Tupolev in 2013 to develop the PAK DA. However, test flights are not expected until next year, with production to start in 2027, citing Russian media.

While it would make sense for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA program, it may lack the capacity to do so, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. In a phone interview, he noted that Russia is also experiencing delays in other major defense projects, including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.

Bronk at RUSI also doubted Russia’s ability to accelerate the PAK DA program.

“Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions” he said.