ISW explains why Kremlin has intensified its statements about negotiations with Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

It is noted that Peskov’s repeated claims that NATO and Russia are already in “direct confrontation” represents an intensification of this ongoing narrative but is likely still part of Russia‘s reflexive control campaign that uses threatening language to delay and influence important decisions regarding Western support for Ukraine.

"This Kremlin narrative is also likely an attempt to pose NATO’s defensive activity in response to Russia’s outright aggression as provocative," analysts say.

At the same time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed after a conversation with his French counterpart that he and Lecornu noted "readiness for a dialogue on Ukraine," which could resemble the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks held in Istanbul in April 2022.

"Shoigu’s attempts to threaten France and deter continued Western support for Ukraine while feigning interest in peace negotiations are part of a wider Russian information operation aimed at convincing Western countries to push Ukraine into unfavorable and unequal negotiations on Russia’s terms," the statement said.

Instead, Lavrov claimed that the current situation on the battlefield has created "new realities" and that Russia is ready for "honest talks based on these new realities and on Russia’s security interests."

Russian officials have repeatedly falsely blamed Ukraine and the West for the lack of peace negotiations, despite numerous public Russian statements suggesting or explicitly stating that Russia is not interested in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.

"ISW continues to assess that Russia’s maximalist objectives – which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender – remain unchanged and that any Russian statements suggesting that Russia is interested in peace negotiations are very likely efforts to force the West to make concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity," the analysts added.

• Russia said that France has expressed its readiness to engage in a dialogue on Ukraine or discuss possible peace talks. Paris denied this statement.