Mobilization, 'terrorist state' claims, warnings of war: Ukraine outlines Russia’s July propaganda playbook

The Center for Countering Disinformation reported the information.

Discrediting Ukraine’s European integration. An ongoing information campaign against Ukraine’s accession to the EU is expected. After the European Council summit on June 26–27, pro-Kremlin media will claim that Ukraine’s integration poses a “threat” to Europe. The focus is likely to be on assertions about destabilization and economic risks.

“This campaign is aimed at undermining trust in European institutions, creating doubts about the advisability of supporting Ukraine, and deepening divisions within the EU. At the same time, such messages will be used to intimidate European citizens and politicians, in order to force them to reconsider the course toward Ukraine’s European integration,” the Center explained.

Promoting narratives about Ukraine as a “terrorist state.” Russian propaganda is likely to continue to label Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes on military targets in occupied territories or on Russian territory as “acts of terrorism.” The goal is to convince external audiences that Ukraine is allegedly the aggressor and uses terrorist methods, including against its partners.

Promoting anti-mobilization narratives to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Russia may continue its operation aimed at discrediting Ukraine’s mobilization processes. In particular, the Kremlin will spread fake news about “mass dissatisfaction” with mobilization in Ukraine, videos of demonstratively harsh detentions (including fake or taken out of context), to create the impression that such cases are widespread. The goal of this campaign is to demoralize the population and destabilize the situation inside the country.

The BRICS summit and speculation about the West. The Kremlin will likely promote the idea of BRICS as an alternative to the West. The event may be presented as another step toward building a supposedly “fair multipolar world” led by Russia. At the same time, Russia will criticize the G7 as a “closed elite structure.” The goal is to strengthen Russia’s influence among Global South countries.

Intensification of information campaigns regarding EU sanctions. Russia may again claim the “ineffectiveness” of restrictions, which allegedly do not harm its economy but instead “worsen the economic crisis in the EU.”

Special attention will be paid to the alleged “failure of sanctions policy.” As an argument, Russia will use its macroeconomic indicators, such as the strengthening of the ruble and GDP growth rates. At the same time, the narrative of a “crisis situation in the EU,” allegedly caused by sanctions against Russia, will be promoted.

Manipulation around security issues in Europe and denial of the Russian threat. Kremlin propaganda is likely to promote the narrative that Russia is not the aggressor, but that European countries are preparing to attack.

“Special emphasis will be placed on claims about the buildup of NATO’s military presence near Russian borders and the preparation of the civilian population for war, which will be presented as evidence of Europe’s intentions to start a conflict,” the Center added.

Information activity as a result of escalation between the U.S. and Iran. Russian media will portray Russia as a military leader and ally of Iran in the fight against the “common enemy” — the U.S. and Israel. These messages will be promoted in Middle Eastern and African countries.

Intensification of efforts to discredit Armenia’s political leadership. Russia will continue its campaign against the government of Nikol Pashinyan after the arrests of Karapetyan and Galstanyan. Propaganda will focus on accusations of persecuting the opposition and pressuring the church, and will promote the idea of Western interference in Armenia’s internal affairs.

Intensification of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric ahead of Belarus’ Independence Day. Russia will actively promote narratives about threats from Ukraine and the West. The main messages of the campaign will likely include accusations that Ukraine is trying to destabilize the situation in Belarus, that Ukrainians are involved in “preparing terrorist attacks” or sabotage, and that there are threats to sovereignty from the West in collusion with the “Kyiv regime.” The campaign will serve as a pretext for internal repression.

Information attacks by Russia against Azerbaijan. Due to the escalation of bilateral relations after the incident in Yekaterinburg, where two citizens of Azerbaijani origin were killed during an FSB special operation, Russia will intensify its campaign against Baku, using narratives about ethnic mafias, “external interference,” and collusion with Turkey and the West.

• Russian propaganda has intensified the spread of disinformation about the alleged preparation for mandatory mobilization of women in Ukraine, in order to sow panic and destabilize the situation in the rear.