Russia decides to capture Avdiivka despite heavy losses - military expert
On October 20, an absolute daily record of 1,380 soldiers was achieved for Russian manpower elimination
There were also very high figures for destroyed Russian equipment. And this is the total result for the entire combat zone, not just Avdiivka, but it was Avdiivka that contributed the main percentage to these losses.
These seem to be very positive figures, but in fact they are actually alarming. They show that the Russian command does not intend to stop.
When the Russian offensive was launched on October 7, it would seem that after the first results of this suicide mission, they should have taken a break to restore combat capability. But, no. Instead, they pushed the 21st Detached Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade to Avdiivka.
It should be understood that the 21st Detached Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade is one of the most combat-ready brigades. That is, the most combat-ready brigade is taken from the area of responsibility, where the offensive is also starting along the Lyman-Kupyansk axis? Not logical or…
This decision of the Russian command indicated that Avdiivka was a fetish target for them and that they would keep pressing on the flanks. This was confirmed by another offensive attempt and record losses on October 19.
Another wave has already been carried out by the 114th Detached Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade, which was hastily replenished and again sent to push through the northern sector.
That is, the Russian command will now focus on Avdiivka, as it did on Bakhmut, which means that significant resources will be oriented toward this town. This, in theory, will allow Ukraine to realize quite bold scenarios in other directions. But, apparently, the Russian command does not care much about this.
Let me remind you that in 2022, most of the Kharkiv region and the right-bank part of Kherson region were liberated when the Russian offensive was taking place in Bakhmut.
Avdiivka is a powerful fortification, although it has its flaws and vulnerabilities. But to crack it, Russia will need much more resources than are now concentrated near the city. Where they'll take it from and what they'll weaken further is a rhetorical question. But the fact that they're going for it and already doing it is more than obvious.
About the author. Oleksandr Kovalenko, Ukrainian military and political observer of the Information Resistance group, journalist, writer.
The editors don’t always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.