Russia conceal heavy losses near Vuhledar - ISW

ISW informs about this in the new report.

It is noted that on a Russian state TV show, Putin deliberately praised the Pacific and Northern Fleets amid highly published and substantial losses to mechanized elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in their assault on Vuhledar.

In its turn, the Russian MoD had been silent regarding Russian losses in Vuhledar, and Putin’s comment follows Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s statement on February 7 that Russian forces are successfully developing an offensive.

"Putin is likely deliberately doubling down on the Russian MoD’s extremely overly optimistic description of the Vuhledar frontline to sustain the narrative of an imminent and sweeping major Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast," analysts say.

Putin is also likely refraining from siding with critical milbloggers who had been increasingly accusing the Russian MoD and military command of failing to learn from their previous mistakes when conducting mechanized drives.

Putin’s comment, however, may also signal an intent to reinforce the assault on Vuhledar with more mobilized forces or by recommitting remaining Northern Fleet elements to the area, the Institute believes.

"The Russian military’s use of mobilized personnel as replacements in battle-damaged units is unlikely to generate sufficient offensive capabilities for a large-scale and rapid mechanized advance," experts say.

According to the report, the brigade that participated in an assault on the city was 80% to 90% staffed with mobilized men because the Russian military command consistently reinforces Russian units with mobilized servicemen.

"Russia’s continued reliance on mobilized men who were unable to perform military tasks such as identifying and detecting minefields or knowing what to do having blundered into them during the assault indicates that these mobilized elements do not have the necessary combat experience necessary to stage a successful mechanized offensive," ISW said.

At the same time, experts add that Russia may deploy additional mobilized elements that may  conduct sound defensive operations or attrition-based offensive operations to the Vuhledar frontline.

• On February 12, ISW analysts claimed that reports of tactical failures of Russian troops around Vuhledar further weakened Russians' faith in their ability to launch a large-scale offensive.

• On February 13, it became known that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had defeated a large column of Russians near Vuhledar. 

• Subsequently, military expert Serhiy Kuzan said that the main goal of Russian attacks on Vuhledar was an attempt to reach the Donetsk group of AFU.