Russia cannot count on success around Bakhmut and near Donetsk. Serhiy Zgurets column

The new line of defense of Russians after the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region

As a result of the successful offensive in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine freed more than 6,000 sq.km of land. Ukraine has recaptured a significant number of settlements and this week continued its offensive in the northeast. The enemy lost a significant number of personnel and an unprecedented amount of weapons and military equipment.

The enemy forces that survived - for example, part of the units of the 6th Army of the Western Military District and the Northern and Baltic Fleets - retreated to the territory of the Belgorod region and concentrated there along the state border of Ukraine. There they try to somehow recover. Parts of units from the 20th Army, the First Tank Army of the ZVO retreated across the Oskil River along the line of the left bank of the Oskil river – Borova – Lyman – Kreminna – Rubizhne. Previously, it was predicted that the enemy would maintain a defense in the area between the Oskil river and the city of Svatove in the Luhansk region, but so far no active measures have been seen by the enemy to create a real line of defense.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff reported that the Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks in the Kupyansk region. Let me remind you that in the Svativ direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took the left bank of Kupyansk, liberated Dibrova and Shchurov. The last point is located on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets river, 6 km from Lyman. Optimistic experts believe that a further Ukrainian advance to the East of the Oskil river and to the North of the Siverskyi Donets river could cause Russian troops to surround Lyman and open the approaches to Lysychansk and, eventually, to Severodonetsk. But this is an assumption, because there is no information about the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russian troops cannot count on success around Bakhmut and Donetsk

Donetsk direction. Here, Russia continues offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk, despite the fact that there is no logic in this. In view of the defeat of the Russian Izyum group, which was "hanging" over Donetsk and had the goal of making an offensive breakthrough to the South, there is no such possibility now. Despite this, Russian troops are trying to press Bakhmut from the east and southeast, trying to block all roads and supplies to the city. Combat operations in the Bakhmut area are being conducted by units of the "Wagner" PMC, fighting continues near Bilogorivka, Spirnyi, Soledar. A little further in the direction of Avdiyivka, the enemy is trying to advance to Krasnohorivka. The General Staff reported that the Arkmed Forces of Ukraine are repelling all attacks on Bakhmut, Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk. The Russians cannot count on success around Bakhmut and Donetsk, but will continue their efforts to gain positions in the Donetsk region, regardless of losses, but not without a result.

Why is the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Kherson region slow?

The operation in the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper is significantly different from the Kharkiv-Izyum operation. We are talking about much slower rates of advancement. Why so? The territory of the right bank, which is currently occupied by units of the Russian army, is difficult for conducting offensive operations. This region is dissected by numerous canals, which are small but significant water obstacles. Part of the front runs along the Ingulets river, which needs to be crossed if necessary, and the lack of forests and other natural shelters significantly complicates the use of armored vehicles.

For this reason, Ukrainian Armed Forces use offensive tactics using only one infantry. At the same time, artillery-missile units provide maximum fire impact on the Russian military infrastructure and their forces in the near and far rear. This influence is the main element of the slow but fairly steady advance of Ukrainian ground forces.

The efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region are divided into three directions - the route from Mykolaiv to Kherson with the approach to Kiselyvka and Chornobayivka, the second - near the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Ingulets river - from Sukhyi Stavok in the direction of Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka, and the third - squeezing the Russians in the west of Vysokopil. Battles are currently taking place near Pravdyne and at the Ingulets bridgehead - these are the two sectors of this front that are the most tense.

The enemy does not stop trying to transfer equipment, fuel and ammunition to maintain his group on the right bank of the Dnipro river, and Ukrainian troops regularly cut off the enemy's supply lines with bridges, pontoons and ferries. Also, manpower accumulation strikes are regularly launched - they are quite effective. The operational situation and the type of terrain in the Kherson direction determine the format of battles as battles of attrition. They can continue for a certain and sufficiently long period, but with a winning result specifically for Ukraine. It's only a matter of time here, formally, you can take your time and further exhaust the enemy, but when we see what happened in the occupied Izyum, we want Ukraine to be liberated as soon as possible. Thanks to the skills of our soldiers and the provision of foreign aid.