Russia, as it exists today, cannot be transformed

In seeking revenge against Ukraine for the collapse of the USSR, he has already gone so far that he is simply unable to abandon his idea voluntarily. However, the dictator is merely the manifestation of the larger problem that modern Russia poses to the world.

The Russian Federation, infected with the bacillus of chauvinism, poses a threat to the civilized world. Even after Putin's replacement, we cannot expect automatic changes. Unless the imperial matrix is destroyed and its key representatives neutralized, no meaningful change can occur.

Russia, as it exists today, cannot be transformed. Attempts to instill democracy during Boris Yeltsin's time were short-lived, as the country quickly reverted to its Soviet-era totalitarianism. Democracy cannot thrive in a state built on the foundations of the Golden Horde, where brutal terror and unlimited power ruled. Putin merely added total propaganda from a privatized television to his regime's already extensive power.

“Democracy cannot thrive in a state built on the foundations of the Golden Horde, where brutal terror and unlimited power ruled”

The system of governance in Putin's Russian Federation, much like the Golden Horde of old, facilitates the complete exploitation of the peoples it has conquered. The terrorist regime requires constant wars and territorial expansion to maintain power. Thus, the explanations of Russian liberals that blame Putin alone for everything seem naive and unconvincing. Putin did not seize Crimea and Donbas by himself. Without the support of his "super-Orthodox" and "God-chosen" Russian people, he would have been unable to do so.

The West's mistake is to overlook the "history" and "culture" of Muscovy, which has a completely Asian mentality. If a new Gorbachev were to appear after Putin, the West might once again believe that Russia has embarked on the path of democracy. However, the Russian people cannot decide who will rule their country, as it is a totalitarian terrorist state where the population lives in constant fear of reprisals from Putin and his accomplices.

“Russian people cannot decide who will rule their country, as it is a totalitarian terrorist state where the population lives in constant fear of reprisals from Putin and his accomplices”

The Russian Federation poses a threat to its neighboring countries, not only due to its military strength but also because of its utter disregard for human life. Under the leadership of Putin's regime, Russia attempts to impose its "values" on weaker nations. Putin's followers promote a theory of a "separate Russian civilization," emphasizing "Orthodox supremacy" and "spirituality," and are willing to eliminate anyone who opposes it.

However, this idea of "pseudo-supremacy" is not accepted by anyone beyond Russia's borders. Instead, due to its aggressive actions in Ukraine, Russia has lost its status as a "big bear" and is now seen as a "sneaky dog." Even China, Russia's closest "ally," acknowledges this new geopolitical position, despite Putin's efforts to present himself as Xi Jinping's equal. When Russia seeks to "bite" Ukraine and growls menacingly at the United States and Europe to deter interference, the best course of action is to force it back into the kennel to quell its aggression.

With the ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin's actions are potentially encouraging Xi Jinping to seize control of lands in the Far East and Siberia. The professional army of the Russian Federation has been significantly weakened by the conflict in Ukraine and the new, inexperienced soldiers may not be able to resist China's revanchist intentions. If the Kremlin is hoping to use nuclear weapons to deter China from crossing the Far Eastern border with Russia, they are gravely mistaken. China will not hesitate to respond in kind.

The Russian dictator adheres to some kind of perverted "logic", Putin's decision to enter into a confrontational stance with the West is a misguided strategy that is likely to backfire. By aligning himself so closely with Beijing, he is putting the Russian Federation on a path towards vassal-like dependence on the People's Republic of China.

“The Russian dictator adheres to some kind of perverted "logic", Putin's decision to enter into a confrontational stance with the West is a misguided strategy that is likely to backfire. By aligning himself so closely with Beijing, he is putting the Russian Federation on a path towards vassal-like dependence on the People's Republic of China”

It appears that Beijing only seeks to strengthen its ties with Russia to bring it closer to its desired target. Once Xi Jinping becomes aware that Russia is considerably weakened and unable to offer significant resistance in the Far East, the PRC will take full advantage.

It is surprising that no one in Moscow has read the book "The Blue Ants" by the British writer Bernard Newman, which describes a fictional Russian war in the 1970s. Newman was a serious author, but maybe he just got the century wrong back then in 1963?

Despite its classification as military futurology, Newman's book serves as a warning to Putin from the last century. The plot of "The Blue Ants" centers around a catastrophic clash between two red giants, Russia and China, in the year 1970. 

As the rivalry between two states reaches a sudden and dramatic peak, the Russian leader is compelled to seek Western powers' assistance against the new yellow threat, or risk destruction by the savage hordes. Is this book a prophecy about Russia's future fate? If Bernard Newman's only mistake was the timing of the event, then China's invasion of Russia could commence even before the Russian Federation's complete defeat in Ukraine.

Transforming this possibility into reality could be a forced move for Beijing to divert attention from the deteriorating economic and social situation in the country. The recession in the PRC may not have started yet, but only because Xi Jinping's regime currently manages to maintain the financial pyramid in the Chinese economy. However, it is only a matter of time before it becomes impossible to do so.

In other words, Xi Jinping may attempt to replicate Putin's military venture in Ukraine, but by choosing Russia as the victim. Part of the Russian establishment is likely to grasp this. This realization may push them to make the right decision and remove the usurper from power.

“Xi Jinping may attempt to replicate Putin's military venture in Ukraine, but by choosing Russia as the victim. Part of the Russian establishment is likely to grasp this. This realization may push them to make the right decision and remove the usurper from power”

It doesn't matter who will be in power in the future, whether it's Navalny or someone else. Bernard Newman's "The Blue Ants" provides the Russian elite with a clear strategy to preserve their state or at least what remains after its collapse.

During World War II, the German Army was considered one of the most effective military forces, while the Soviet Red Army was among the least effective. The USSR's only advantage over Germany was the sheer number of troops. As a result, the Soviet side suffered incredibly high losses, with 20 million casualties, but they still managed to achieve victory.

Bernard Newman suggests that if Beijing were to apply the Soviet Union's past tactics against the Russian Federation, China would be capable of enduring a nuclear war with Russia, resulting in millions of casualties. Despite this, China would still survive as a nation. This is a significant temptation for Xi Jinping, as he may attempt to replicate the Russians' experience in World War II.

For several years, Moscow has been publicly announcing the threat of NATO and the West to Russia while disregarding the substantial danger posed by the East to the nation's survival. The Russians have limited time to rectify Putin's historical mistake of recklessly invading Ukraine. But they must make this decision themselves.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.