But the best ending to this story would be the liberation of all Ukrainian territories by the Defense Forces
Below is the text version of the conversation between Andriy Yanitsky, economic commentator on Espreso TV channel, and Roman Nitsovych, the video can be viewed here.
What role does nuclear power play in our energy system?
It is the backbone of the Ukrainian energy system because it provides a basic, i.e. constant level of electricity generation. Even despite the war, the share of nuclear electricity in total production remains very high. While in 2021 it was about 54%, in 2022 it was about 53%.
In total, Ukraine has four operating nuclear power plants, 15 power units. If we exclude the Zaporizhzhia NPP with six units, we get three nuclear power plants and nine units. The operating ones are Rivne, Khmelnytsky, and South Ukraine. And, of course, Zaporizhzhia, which is under occupation.
Is Zaporizhzhia power plant still generating electricity?
No, the plant is not in operation. It only consumes electricity in the amount of about 100 MW for the functioning of security systems and cooling systems. That is, it is operating in such a "frozen" mode.
Then why does the country have enough electricity?
The compensation is due to the fact that demand has also decreased. Many people have left and do not live in Ukraine. Industrial demand has dropped significantly. Accordingly, we are compensating for the loss of capacity.
So Zaporizhzhia NPP is not working?
Five units are in a "cold shutdown" state and one unit is in a "hot shutdown" state. Now there is a struggle to force the occupation administration to comply with the order of the Ukrainian nuclear regulator and transfer it to cold shutdown as well. Because now this unit is working to produce technical steam, which is not in demand. It could be in demand during the heating season to heat the apartments of Enerhodar residents, but now the steam is not needed. That is, the occupiers are artificially keeping the plant in a dangerous condition.
If the invaders disable the cooling system, the reactor will need to be cooled down quickly to prevent core meltdown and possible release of radioactive substances.
So the risk of an explosion at Zaporizhzhia NPP remains?
Unfortunately, after the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant by the Russians, we cannot rule out even the worst-case scenarios at Zaporizhzhia NPP. Of course, if a nuclear power plant is turned into a military facility, if military personnel, military equipment and mine explosive devices are deployed there, there is a danger. The danger will remain as long as the Russian military is there.
What should people do, especially those who live near the plant in case of an explosion?
In any case, there is no need to work on iodine prophylaxis, even if there is a leak, there will be no radioactive iodine. The radionuclide that is produced at operating reactors is not produced at non-operating reactors. The classic advice is to prepare a supply of water and food, and to constantly listen to what the official services are reporting. This applies to a greater extent to residents of the surrounding areas, since in the worst-case scenario, the affected area will be tens of kilometers around the nuclear power plant, not hundreds.
DiXi Group's website contains an analytical material on the necessary measures to counter the nuclear threat. What should be done?
The most effective measure would be military assistance to Ukraine and assistance in the liberation of territories to completely eliminate the threat. If we are talking about diplomatic channels, we need to work to ensure that sanctions against Rosatom are imposed. Employees of this Russian state-owned company are actively helping the occupiers undermine the foundations of nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and global nuclear safety in general. Rosatom is part of the Russian military machine, its enterprises are directly involved in the production of nuclear weapons components. Obviously, such a company cannot be an exception and sanctions should also be imposed against it.
"The elephant must be eaten piece by piece," so we are talking about imposing sanctions against those Rosatom companies that are not involved in, for example, the operation of nuclear power plants. We are talking about scientific institutes, about enterprises that work for the Russian military-industrial complex. It is necessary to curtail cooperation, cut them off from technology, and eliminate the possibility of importing dual-use goods. Currently, Rosatom can be used as a window to import goods for the Russian army.
Can the IAEA influence the situation?
The IAEA is not an omnipotent structure, it is an organization of 176 member states. And if we want to achieve something, we need to convince not only Western countries but also many other countries to condemn Russia's actions.
Secondly, the IAEA observation mission, which is currently at Zaporizhzhia NPP, is limited both in the number of personnel and in the access of experts to different parts of the site. Obviously, they are not allowed to go where they could report on the real danger. They are constantly followed by FSB officers, so they cannot freely fulfill the mandate they have to monitor violations of nuclear safety regimes and standards.
But this is the only international organization that is present there and is trusted. The position of the Ukrainian or Russian side is still considered biased, while the IAEA's position is more neutral. Perhaps we should talk about expanding the mission, expanding its mandate and gradually bringing the entire station under IAEA control.
This will be a unique story when a nuclear facility is not under the control of a specific national operator organization, but temporarily comes under the control of the IAEA, and only then under the control of Ukraine.