Reshuffled German government: What it means for Ukraine and Europe

The international information and analytical community Resurgam explains that on Thursday, the allocation of ministries within the incoming coalition was revealed:

• Christian Democratic Union (CDU - Merz): 7 ministries
• Christian Social Union (CSU - Söder): 3 ministries
• Social Democratic Party (SPD - Klingbeil): 7 ministries

From Ukraine’s perspective, particular attention is being paid to who will lead the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Finance — as these portfolios directly influence military support, foreign policy, and budget allocations.

Key appointments relevant to Ukraine

Defense Ministry:
Boris Pistorius (SPD) is expected to remain as Defense Minister. He has consistently advocated for increasing Germany’s defense budget and stepping up support for Ukraine. While he hasn’t publicly confirmed support for supplying Ukraine with Taurus long-range missiles, he has been privately in favor of the move.

Foreign Affairs Ministry:
Johann Wadephul (CDU) will take over as Foreign Minister. Known for his strong pro-Ukraine stance, Wadephul was among the voices pushing Chancellor Scholz’s government to deliver heavy armored vehicles to Ukraine — and later, fighter jets.

Finance Ministry:
SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is set to take charge of the Finance Ministry. This role is especially important as it determines the scope of defense spending and can block or delay decisions, if needed. That said, defense spending plans for the next several years have already been approved and secured.

Coalition agreement and timing

While a coalition agreement is now in place and the names of future ministers have been announced, Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz’s government is unlikely to be installed by the originally targeted date of April 20. Each party has opted to ratify the coalition deal through a party congress — a step aimed at ensuring internal legitimacy, especially considering that a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is far from popular within the party bases.

Most estimates now suggest that the new government will be confirmed between May 5 and May 8.

Positive signs and progress

Despite complex negotiations, the coalition parties have achieved consensus on many key issues. The CSU, known for its more hardline positions, has already approved the coalition agreement at its party congress — a strong signal of internal alignment.

A significant outcome of this process is the decline of influence from Angela Merkel and the CDU’s “old guard.” Merz is widely seen as representing a new generation within the CDU, and his appointment as Chancellor could shift the party’s direction further away from Merkel’s legacy. Reports already suggest Merkel is taking steps to challenge Merz’s leadership behind the scenes.

Most importantly, the new coalition has committed to a robust defense spending plan — a core issue for both European security and Ukraine’s defense.

Concerns over AfD exaggerated

There has been some media alarm over recent polling boosts for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, with no federal elections on the horizon, AfD’s rise holds little immediate impact on Germany’s foreign or defense policies.

• AfD has no real influence in national decision-making.
• Key legislative changes requiring constitutional majorities have already passed.
• Even if AfD expands its presence in the Bundesrat through regional elections, the body has limited power in areas like defense and foreign policy.

For clarity: the Bundesrat is not equivalent to a U.S.- or French-style upper chamber, and its role is mostly limited to regional and constitutional matters. For Ukraine-related issues, its influence is minimal.

Final thoughts

Is the coalition process slow? Yes.
Is it a crisis? Absolutely not.

What’s important is that the most critical decisions — especially those relevant to Ukraine — have already been made. What remains now are technical and procedural steps. The narrowest political bottlenecks have been overcome, and with key ministries aligned in Ukraine’s favor, there is reason for cautious optimism.