Redesigned AliExpress drone hits plant in Rostov region - Serhiy Zgurets
If a commercially modified drone has been able to penetrate the entire line of contact, Russian-controlled areas where their heavy air defenses are positioned, this indicates significant weaknesses in those Russian systems
The strategy of destroying Russia's oil refining facilities continues. From the beginning there were gas production towers in the Black Sea, and now Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery, which is located in the Rostov region. There were no official statements from Ukrainian structures. But interestingly, this object is located 150 km from the line of contact. Experts and journalists analyzed a sample of a drone diving into a factory. At first they said that it was Bayraktar-TB2, and then they said that it was a Ukrainian-made drone. Later, after analyzing the appearance, it was estimated that this is actually an ordinary Chinese drone, which can be purchased on AliExpress (global virtual trading platform - Ed.) and costs from USD 5,000-9,000. It was modified for this mission, since ordinary commercial drones simply can not perform tasks involving such distances. So this means that this drone has been heavily modified to carry out this strike mission.
If a commercially modified drone has been able to overcome the entire line of contact, all areas controlled by Russian troops and where there is heavy air defense, it means that the potential of Russian systems is minimal. If this project was created through the use of someone else's platform and our technological solutions that could put a control system and provide a combat unit in such a drone, it means that with little money we can solve strategic problems.
Situation in Kherson region
In the Kherson region, we have an advantage in the number of the Armed Forces, and Russia doesn't have enough forces in this area. In recent weeks, the situation has changed, as Russian reserves are being pulled up to Chornobaivka and Vavilov, and Russia is pulling up military equipment and gear. Vavilov near Snihurivka, there are about 400 units of military equipment, and Russia is trying to pull two BTG (battalion-tactical groups - Ed.) to Chornobaivka. The entire line of contact in Kherson is characterized by the fact that although there are counterattacks on the Ukrainian side, it's not worth talking about the rapid dynamics and change of the situation, but there is a desire to do so. There is some progress in some areas towards Kherson, namely the settlement of Kyselivka, which is close to Chornobaivka, and from Chornobaivka to Kherson.
This is the most likely direction for the advance of Ukrainian troops at the current stage. But I think it all depends on the understanding of the balance of power and available reserves. Because the main battle is taking place in Donbas and the General Staff is considering how many forces it can use in other areas. The pace of action in the Donbas will determine the pace of action in other areas to liberate them from Russian forces.
Hottest spots on front
Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are the hottest parts of the front and Russia is trying to fight not only in Severodonetsk, where we hold the area of the Azot enterprise, but also in the direction south of Lysychansk. Metolkine, Bila Hora, Borivske, Russia is trying to advance from these directions to the south of Lysychansk.
I think that the defense of Lysychansk is not weaker than the defense of Severodonetsk, and Russia will have to spend a lot of time and effort to advance to Lysychansk. There is a multi-level landscape and prepared lines of defense that will deter Russian forces. But we should take into account the dynamics, in terms of Russia's advancing in the directions of the settlements of Toshkivka, Pidlisne, Myrna Dolyna, Hirske. Russia is gradually trying to fill these areas with its own forces and move towards Lysychansk. Foreign analytical structures have concluded that the Ukrainian army will have to withdraw from this area within a week or two. But the situation on the battlefield is changing dynamically.