RAND Corporation experts voice four scenarios of possible Russian attack on NATO

Experts from RAND Corporation write about it.

They developed four scenarios for possible escalation of conflict between Russia and NATO, assessing Moscow's possible motives and proposing options for the alliance's response.

Authors of the report excluded from analysis options in which Russia uses nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons, as well as strikes on the territory of the United States, explaining this by the fact that "use of such weapons would cause a completely different set of response options."

According to the most severe scenario ("D"), Russia will immediately launch missile strikes on six key air and sea ports of the alliance, including the Ramstein base and port of Rotterdam.

More "soft" scenario ("C") assumes that Russia will strike three air bases in Poland and Romania, through which aid to Ukraine arrives.

Scenario "B" assumes that Russia destroys the American intelligence satellite or the satellite of one of the NATO countries in Earth orbit.

The "most restrained" scenario "A" assumes that Russian cruise missiles will hit an empty warehouse - for example, in eastern Poland. American experts also classify this option as "demonstrational".

RAND Corporation ("Research AND Development") is an analytical center founded on May 14, 1948, in the USA. It began its activities as an analytical unit of the US Air Force but is now one of the most authoritative research centers in the world in all areas of public policy and management.

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