Question of who is responsible for Moscow drone attack is up in the air

Sky News’ international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn writes about it in his analysis.

With regard to the target, the drone strike on the Kremlin last month was more significant, he says.  Then, two drones were employed. Even while many Russian sources claim there were anything from eight to 25 to 32 drones deployed in today's strike, Sky News is unable to confirm this.

And it's not really apparent who was responsible. Was their own capital under attack by the Russians? Sounds crazy, but it's entirely conceivable. Was it a faction of Russians that were unhappy? Possible as well.  Perhaps Ukrainians? The most likely culprits, surely? No, not necessarily.

Drone experts will spend the day examining fuselage silhouettes in an effort to identify the UAVs that were used. That will make it easier to assign guilt but not infallibly.

Russians can replicate Ukrainian designs if they truly want to go to such efforts to stage a false flag incident, as long as Western drone spotters can recognize them. 

Identifying who stands to gain the most may be more helpful.

By pretending that a Ukrainian drone attacked Moscow, Russia is able to erode Western support for Kyiv. Ukraine is said to have made unwavering promises that it wouldn't strike Russia directly. 

Additionally, it aids in frightening the local population and energizing resistance to the enemy.  

If it seems unlikely, keep in mind that the 1990 Moscow apartment bombings, which left more than 300 people dead and served as the excuse for the Chechen conflict that helped Vladimir Putin ascend to power, are now believed to have been carried out by Russia's FSB spy agency.

Additionally, it allows the Russians justification of their unrelenting and savage attacks on Kyiv.

Perhaps a rebellious Russian group? Possible as well.

The drones have come down in an area where some of the country's elites live and makes the Putin regime look weak. Wagner chief and Putin rival Yevgeny Prighozhin has already spoken out to condemn the government for leaving the capital exposed.

Ukraine has less to gain from this episode. It plays into the hands of enemies in the West, especially those in America who want to turn off the spigot of US military help.  

The Ukrainians can't keep their word, they will say, or can't control themselves. It weakens Kyiv's moral position too.  

For a year and a half it has been condemning Russia for its wilful arbitrary assault on civilian buildings. Now it appears to be doing the same thing.

Ukrainians have been targeting civilian infrastructure, from oil refineries to depots, deep inside Russia for months. However, the residential architecture in the capital is of a different order and character.

If Ukraine is acting in this manner, it can only be understood as a part of the buildup to the eagerly anticipated counteroffensive. Along with those peculiar cross-border raids in Bryansk and Belgorod, this is all part of a strategy to frighten the opponent. The big push is just a few days away, so keep the adversary on its toes, test its weak points, and demonstrate that nobody is safe.

However, that is only true if such an offensive is actually imminent. We have been saying this for days and weeks, but Ukraine's much-anticipated response has not yet materialized.  

Treat everything that occurs in this battle and everything that is said about it with skepticism until that time comes and a compelling narrative takes shape.  No one is certain of anything, the author concludes.

• On the morning of May 30, Russia reported en masse explosions as a result of a drone attack. Russia's MoD blames the “Kyiv regime” for “the terrorist attack”, and Ukrainian Air Force’s spokesman called the incident "Russian internal problems"