Putin at the сrossroads: Ceasefire or sanctions and economic freefall?

Meanwhile, Vitkoff, Dmitriev, and their friend “Vladimir” set Trump up, and as a result, their positions within the U.S. administration have been seriously shaken.

Right now, perhaps the most intriguing question is what Putin will do next: will he listen to the persuasion of the “young FSB crowd” led by Dmitriev and announce a ceasefire (hoping in return for sanctions relief, business with the U.S., and a lifeline for Russia’s economy)? Or will he stay the course with the old KGB guard’s “fortress under siege” plan (which would mean an American embargo on Russian oil, economic collapse, a sharp drop in living standards, a call for mobilization, and essentially turning Russia into a North Korea-style state)?

In my opinion, the second option looks more appealing to Putin because the first carries the risk of a “revolt of the old guard.” And the younger faction is still too green to challenge them effectively.

So, my hypothesis: Putin will stall as long as possible, but Trump will begin ramping up pressure in the coming days. The result? A sharp shift in U.S. rhetoric toward Russia and the first real moves to force Moscow into a ceasefire.

What follows will be an internal Kremlin power struggle that will determine the next steps: either “full steam ahead to North Korea mode” or a “new perestroika.”

For us, nothing changes for now: the war goes on.

Source

About the author. Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, co-founder of the Consortium for Defence Information.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.