Prigozhin wins back Putin's favor amid army setbacks — ISW

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write about this.

The Institute's report says that Prigozhin appears to be regaining Putin's favor, likely as a result of the Russian conventional forces' inability to meet the tasks that Putin set for them during the winter offensive in Donbas.

Wagner appears to be receiving reinforcements, ammunition and political recognition – a sharp departure from the Kremlin's previous efforts to use PMC and Prigozhin forces in Bakhmut since at least January 2023.

On April 17, sources connected to Wagner reported that the PMC was preparing up to three motorized rifle brigades of mobilized servicemen to reinforce its flanks in Bakhmut.

Prigozhin also confirmed that Russian airborne troops were operating alongside Wagner and indicated that the PMC was actively receiving artillery shells.

It is unclear to analysts how much Putin trusts Prigozhin, but it is likely that Putin stopped the Russian Defense Ministry's efforts to retaliate against Wagner by denying reinforcements and ammunition, analysts say.

The review notes that interviews with two of Wagner's former fighters about their treatment of Ukrainian children, other civilians, and prisoners of war further underscore how the PMC has entrenched systematic brutality as part of its fundamental modus operandi.

According to analysts, the extremely graphic atrocities described by Uldarov and Savichev underscore a number of recent reports of Wagner's systematic use of brutality as a method of warfare.

Experts also point out that Prigozhin and Wagner's command may actively encourage active participation in atrocities, trying to strengthen social cohesion and reputation in units.

The report concludes: “This type of engrained violence is likely to have escalating domestic impacts on Russian domestic society, especially as Wagner fighters complete their contracts and return to their homes. Russian society will have to increasingly work to handle the normalized brutality committed by its forces as they reintegrate into the domestic sphere, which will likely have generational domestic societal ramifications”. 

• Political expert Oleksiy Holobutskyi believes that the Kremlin uses Prigozhin to replicate its ideas in the public sphere.