Prigozhin and the shadow of civil war

Briefly. What was going on? The conflict between the Russian Armed Forces controlled by Shoigu and Gerasimov and the Wagner PMC of Prigozhin and Utkin has reached a new level - it has reached not very large-scale, but obvious clashes. The Wagner Group's mercenaries captured an entire lieutenant colonel of the Russian Armed Forces.

Shoigu and Gerasimov have attracted Ramzan Kadyrov, who benefits from keeping all or a significant part of his private forces as far away from the war as possible, to their side. For example, in the Belgorod region. But Kadyrov's media, political, and financial power is now on Shoigu's side.

“Why is Kadyrov on the side of the Defense Ministry? Because the strengthening of Prigozhin's position is dangerous for all participants in the regatta. In addition, the Wagner PMC has a lot of Nazis and radical veterans of the two Chechen wars who hate the 'blacks' on a deep personal and almost psychiatric level. What else can you expect from Nazis?”

In recent weeks, both Prigozhin and the Defense Ministry party have been doing their best to get maximum attention from Putin, who traditionally acts as an arbiter of conflicts within his own circle and intervenes in them only in exceptional cases. This is generally quite typical of old Asian monarchies and dictatorships, when the dictator (king, emperor) is an 'arbitrator' for elite groups and uses force against those who disobey. Until someone gathers the strength to ignore or remove the dictator altogether.

A few days ago, Shoigu and Gerasimov actually ordered the Wagner PMC to join the Russian Armed Forces by signing individual (this is important) contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry. Prigozhin and his mercenaries refused.

And at a meeting with the 'war correspondents,' Putin personally, albeit very cautiously, stated that all 'volunteers' must sign these contracts. No, he did not threaten Prigozhin. He said it was necessary for social guarantees, but everyone understood. 

“By the way, this does not mean that Putin has taken Shoigu's side. It means that Putin has been personally affected by this story and is somewhat annoyed by it. For example, in May 2023, Russians were twice as interested in Prigozhin as they were in Putin in search engines. No, of course, Prigozhin is not a competitor to Putin. But he is (already) visible enough to be difficult to get rid of.”

That's why Putin is offering a deal, an elite peace, an agreement, a new balance. (Which, by the way, proves that he is thinking quite rationally.) What did Prigozhin say to Putin's call for submission to the Defense Ministry? He refused. The Wagner soldiers will not sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. Moreover, Prigozhin called on other 'volunteers' to join and expand his 'private army.'

What is the basis of Prigozhin's audacity?

1. He is popular in the Russian army because he has been systematically working to establish his credibility as an effective leader against Shoigu.

2. He is almost the only supplier of food to the Russian Armed Forces (this is its main business). Shoigu (and Putin) are well aware of what will happen if the 'food logistics' of the Russian Armed Forces also collapses.

3. He has his own media empire, which has allowed him to become the second most mentioned person in the country (and the first in terms of queries in May).

4. He still has a great business in Africa. Where he can go as a backup airfield.

Now Prigozhin is feeling the pressure of the 'systemic elite' and is defending himself with all available means. And the best tool for defense is offense. And he has the resources to fight.

Read also: Putin is dying of old defeats

And Putin's reaction to Prigozhin's refusal will determine two trends:

1. The growth of sabotage and entropy in the Russian government system.

2. The pace of degradation of the Russian army.

If Putin fails to respond adequately to the refusal, it will be a blow to both Shoigu (authority in the army) and the Kremlin (Putin's authority as an arbitrator). Prigozhin may be pressured or even destroyed. But this is all a resource - military, media, financial. And, most importantly, a resource of legitimacy.

No matter how this conflict ends, the Russian regime has already lost. Prigozhin is the first sign that the rot of dictatorship leads to the fact that in the process of struggling for power and building a 'world after Putin,' the components of the regime are destroying it. We are satisfied with the victory of all parties.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, strategic communications specialist in business, public administration and politics.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.