Among the experts, you will find positions that the Russian economy is strong and will last for another ten years. Other experts say that 2024 is the last year of the Russian economy.
The fact is that the data is mostly classified, and the data that is available does not inspire the slightest confidence.
It is necessary to collect weak signals (realizing that half of these signals are artificially generated by the FSB, but not understanding which half) and draw some conclusions based on this.
This is a rather shaky basis for reasoning, and one can only conclude that the patient is either alive or dead.
If some expert tells you that he knows exactly what the state of the Russian economy is, and this expert is not a Ukrainian intelligence officer who personally recruited the Russian Minister of Economy, this information is hardly worth trusting.
So I will try to collect a few things that can be stated with certainty. I'm sorry if they seem trivial - the reasons are described above.
To summarize, we know very little.
My conclusion is that Ukraine must hold out at least one day longer than the enemy (I have already written about this). The object of Ukraine's influence should be the Russian elites, not the conventional Belgorod. There will be no hunger riots in Russia. There will be a split in the elites, if Ukraine tries.
About the author. Valeriy Pekar, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.