Operation Spider’s Web may weaken Russia’s bombers, but cruise strikes likely to continue — aviation expert

Bohdan Dolintse, aviation expert and member of the public council at the State Aviation Service, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"How often and how actively Russia will be able to use strategic aviation after Operation Spider’s Web will become clear once there’s a real assessment of its losses. It’s worth noting that Russia had around 120 strategic bombers in total: over 50 Tu-22M3s, about 50 Tu-95s, and 17 Tu-160s. After yesterday’s explosions at several strategic airfields, some reports suggest Russia may have lost a third of its strategic aviation," the expert noted.

He said the exact number of aircraft destroyed or damaged is still unknown, as the scale of damage needs to be verified. What’s certain is that at least 10 aircraft were fully destroyed. As for the rest, intelligence needs to determine which were seriously hit and which ones Russia could potentially fix in the medium term.

"Another major consequence of Operation Spider’s Web is how it affects Russia’s ability to use strategic aviation. Still, it’s unlikely the enemy will stop launching cruise missile strikes from carrier aircraft. Even if a third of Russia’s strategic aviation was hit, we have to remember the enemy had about 80 combat-ready aircraft — planes that could take off and launch cruise missiles. The others were usually in storage, used for spare parts, or just sitting on the sidelines of airfields. So realistically, we could be talking about damage to up to 40 aircraft, which might be half of Russia’s combat-ready fleet," Dolintse said.

• On June 1, Ukraine’s Security Service carried out a major strike operation called Spider’s Web targeting Russian bombers. Reports say 40 aircraft were destroyed.