No chance of Russia-Ukraine war ending anytime soon - journalist Portnikov

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov shared his opinions with Espreso TV

"Putin can fight as long as his economy and people allow. However, this period is not unlimited. It is clear that by the 2020s, and possibly in the early 2030s, such resources will not be available. At that point, time may be needed to restore them. We talk a lot about how Russia, if it ends the war in Ukraine – as the head of German intelligence says – will need one and a half to two years to restore its armed forces, and then it could attack Europe. Our great conspiracy theorists, wonderful fellow citizens, say: 'Oh, so it's beneficial for Europe for Russia to fight with Ukraine. While it’s fighting Ukraine, it can’t attack Europe, so they’ll keep this war going.'  

Let’s look at this situation from a different perspective. The war will end. Everything will happen as the head of German intelligence says. Russia will restore its military resources in a year, a year and a half, maybe two, will mobilize more people into the army, and accumulate money to create a new large army of mercenaries. But it won’t strike Europe; it will strike Ukraine again, with new strength, missiles, drones, and in new directions," he noted.

With a 75% probability, if Ukraine does not have real security guarantees, the new arena of Russia's war against Ukraine will be Ukraine itself, not Europe. At the same time, it is possible that this will not only be Ukraine but also the Baltic countries. Under Trump’s presidency in the White House, such a scenario is also quite realistic, as there is an appropriate window of opportunity. But as long as Trump is in the White House, Ukraine remains the ideal victim for Russia. These are the decades we are in, says Portnikov.  

"You already know the date when you will again have to pack your emergency bags or go to the military enlistment office. This will happen a year and a half to two years after the war ends. It’s very simple; at least you can plan your life," he added.

Right now, there is no chance that the Russia-Ukraine war will end in the foreseeable future. However, if such a chance arises, and Trump manages to reach a ceasefire with Putin, that ceasefire must be used in a way that, in two years, a new war does not engulf Ukraine with all its strength, noted Portnikov.  

"It is important that this becomes a fortress, with all economic vectors directed toward defense, not towards plundering or building new roads, etc. Ukraine must stop being a welfare state. Only those who are ready to defend themselves will survive here. Those who need social protection will seek it in other countries. It will not be available here in the 2020s and 2030s. That’s the unpleasant reality," the journalist said.

On the other hand, there is an alternative — the European security model and European troops. If a ceasefire can be achieved, these mechanisms are likely to come into play.

"Europe will realize that America has already been lost as a security guarantor. Nuclear missiles will begin to move closer to Russian borders. French and British troops will appear here, and these processes are already underway. We have no idea how the world will change in the coming months, even years. On May 29, 2025, there will be a different world. There will be many shocking events, and not just because Trump is ready to change the world every day, but simply because we are in such a historic period right now. Any political mistake leads to deep turbulence. We have a chance to break out of this circle," Portnikov concluded.

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington will strive to achieve peace in Ukraine for as long as it takes, and the timeframe for negotiations will depend on Kyiv, Russia, and Europe.