Ukraine’s ability to hold front hinges on ammunition supply rhythm — expert

Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, spoke about this on Espreso TV.

“At this stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression depends almost decisively on the ability of the Ukrainian defense industry and Ukraine's partners to produce weapons and military equipment not only in sufficient quantities but also with the necessary rhythm,” the expert believes.

According to him, 2025 was a turning point: Europe created a so-called Shell Bridge, NATO launched a new financial mechanism called PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), a program under which European allies and Canada pay for purchases, and the United States produces and ships ammunition to Ukraine, and Ukraine began mass-producing its own artillery shells for the first time in history. But these successes also come with serious risks: political changes in the Czech Republic, bottlenecks in gunpowder production, and uncertainty in Washington.

The Shell Bridge is an initiative of Czech President Peter Pavel, who proposed to purchase 800,000 artillery shells on the global market, even in countries that were considered partners of the Russian Federation, with financial assistance from the allies. More than 15 European countries have joined the program.

According to Samus, the initiative has become one of the key elements of Ukraine's projectile resilience: by August 2025, Ukraine had received about 1 million rounds of ammunition, and by the end of the year, the result of 1.8 million rounds of various calibers could be achieved. However, Europe still failed to achieve the planned ammunition production in 2025, and the desired result was postponed to 2026.

"The main challenge for 2026 is not just to increase production, but to maintain the rhythm. Because it is the rhythm, not the total number of millions, that determines whether Ukrainian artillery will be able to conduct counter-battery combat and hold the front day after day," summarizes Mykhailo Samus.