Trump's tariff policy could bring Russia to its knees

A slowdown in global trade inevitably leads to a reduction in oil demand. The tariffs imposed by the US, as well as the expected retaliatory measures from China and possibly other countries, only accelerate these processes. As history shows, this could ultimately lead to a new global economic crisis. And during a crisis, the demand for oil drops, which, in turn, causes oil prices to collapse.

We are already observing this process: within just a few days, global oil prices have fallen by more than 20% (currently below $60) and, it seems, continue to trend downward.

At the same time, even during a crisis, the demand for oil does not disappear. The US president, in his address to the EU, clearly pointed out how this demand should be met—Europe must purchase American energy resources "worth $350 billion." It is obvious that a similar message will be sent to other countries. So even countries like Hungary or Slovakia will likely find it difficult to resist buying American oil instead of Russian.

As a result, the drop in Russian oil prices should be even steeper than that of others.

According to economists' calculations, Russia will run out of money to fund the war if the price of oil drops to $40, or better yet, to $30, and stays at that level for an extended period. Given how events are unfolding right now, this scenario could come about quite quickly.