Russia's diminishing power and regional shifts threaten Assad's hold on Syria

The so-called President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, hopes that Russia will help his troops defeat the opposition.

However, is Russia currently capable of intervening in the Syrian conflict to assist Assad?

Putin's invasion of Ukraine is draining both the military and human resources of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Iran, which continues to support the Syrian dictator, is significantly weakened by Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and attacks on military infrastructure within Iran. Additionally, the Kremlin is increasingly concerned about developments in Georgia.

The situation was further fuelled by Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023, which caused deep turmoil in the Middle East. This has now resulted in a deep regional crisis. At present, regardless of their beliefs and independently of each other, both Israel and Turkey are striking at Bashar al-Assad's military positions, helping the opposition to overthrow the Syrian dictator's regime.

The sudden escalation in Syria followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's announcement of plans to establish a safe zone along the Syrian border and push back Kurdish troops, with whom Turkey has been in conflict for years. In doing so, Erdogan has effectively unilaterally disrupted the Russian-Turkish agreements regarding the "silence" zone in Idlib, where Russia maintains its main military bases.

It is important to note that during his first term, Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of some U.S. troops from northern Syria, putting U.S. allies at risk and creating a vacuum that Turkey quickly filled.

There is a clear understanding that the overthrow of the Assad regime must occur before Donald Trump takes office again. In this regard, telephone discussions are taking place between Israel, the U.S. State Department, and the White House, as well as between the State Department and Ankara, to accelerate processes in Syria. Assad and his regime must be dealt with decisively.

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Demchuk, journalist, expert on Euro-Atlantic issues

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the blog authors.