Putin risks losing initiative with Istanbul visit

Attending a meeting with Zelenskyy would mean handing over the initiative. But on the contrary, with all these maneuvers, Putin is fighting to maintain the initiative, especially in the negotiation process, and not to let it slip from his hands.

"Putin will continue trying to undermine the unity and cohesion of our coalition and will keep putting forward new initiatives."

I do not rule out that he may even use forceful means—by demonstrating new, imaginary, or underdeveloped military capabilities—to intimidate Western partners so that they put more pressure on Ukraine and push it to accept Russian terms and ultimatums.

Because, in reality, this is a war of ultimatums—this exchange could go on forever. Ultimatum after ultimatum—everyone avoids giving a direct answer, and the game continues. And it’s a bad game.

I think this bloody war will last at least until autumn. If Putin did not take up Trump’s proposals, or his own declared ceasefires for Easter and May 9, then there is no reason to expect he will accept a 30-day one.

And even if he promises such a ceasefire, in reality, it will not happen. Rhetorically, he may say, “We have stopped,” and lie to our faces that Russia is not firing, that it’s Ukraine who is shooting.