Trump-Putin call: what’s next?

1. Putin put Trump in his place. The reason why Trump decided to talk to Putin and even suspend arms deliveries remains a mystery. So far, I see no logical explanation. Or rather, the only logic one might look for is in the U.S.–Europe negotiations, where Putin serves as a scarecrow for Trump to make the Europeans more willing to accept all his demands. But the latest NATO summit showed that the Europeans are already prepared for anything. So for now, I see no logic.

2. Our problem also lies in the fact that the main event in Trump’s life has already happened (I’ve written about this several times). And that main event is this: he has already won - for the second time. And he won not to serve, but to rule - to live in a system where everyone kisses his ass - and to seek revenge.

Ukraine is somewhere on the periphery of this revenge.

“3. But our even bigger problem is that we are part of the US-EU negotiation process.”

Our closest allies, on the one hand, are ready to go along with Trump's “acquiesce and flatter” paradigm. On the other hand, they are thinking about how to solve their problems (security and duties) based on the previous point. And we face an extremely difficult task to stay within the perimeter of these negotiations. And here we simply have no other way than to balance between the US and the EU (we have lost all other levers of influence, and above all, China).

4. Putin is playing the game of “buying time without upsetting Trump.” His current goal is to hold out until the fall and break through the front line. I believe that breaking through the front is unrealistic. But that’s what he’s banking on, and his entire strategy in dealing with Trump is built around that.

5. What will Trump do next? I still believe that until autumn (October–November), nothing will happen. Our main task now is to secure permission to purchase weapons. I consider this completely realistic. And diplomacy should focus 90% of its efforts on this.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.