Ukrainian military analyst and CEO of Defense Express media and consulting company, Serhiy Zgurets, has published his latest assessment of the frontline situation in Ukraine.
In fact, there are many components to French President Emmanuel Macron's statements. One of them is that the "red lines" that Russia has been trying to draw, ensuring that European countries are afraid to approach Ukraine, are being broken. They say that a new nuclear war will begin. We need to take into account the willingness of the French to initiate processes that other countries are not yet ready for, or are not ready to talk about publicly. At first, Macron said it was not the right time. A day later, he said that all the words related to the statement about the possibility of sending units to the territory of Ukraine were clearly calculated.
French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said that France is on the right side of history, but the French will not die for Ukraine. The French foreign minister's comments actually meant that Paris is ready to consider new actions to support Ukraine. It is true that the military should not always be on the front line, but things are related to training, demining, cybersecurity, and weapons production. All these components can be realized by the military of other countries on the territory of Ukraine. Now the Ukrainian side is working on various options to find ways to involve the military of other countries in the most needed areas to strengthen the Armed Forces within the framework of security agreements with European countries. We expected that Ukraine would join NATO, and that is absolutely true, but now there is an option where NATO comes to Ukraine. Ukraine is now looking for forms that strengthen its potential, and this is a good new initiative that has caused a strong resonance among its enemies.
The occupation Russian troops entered Robotyne and were repeatedly driven out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now they have been completely driven out of the western parts of Robotyne, where they fought for two strongholds. These strongholds in the western part of Robotyne are held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is no Russian advance there. But in general, the penetration into Russia's defense is a rather difficult area for Ukraine's defense. Russia will try to overplay the results of Ukraine's offensive and take measures to push Ukrainian troops back.
The General Staff must rationally assess the area where Ukraine's military are holding the line. They must assess the risks and possibly make decisions that will optimally secure the situation on this section of the front. This insertion was supposed to be a foothold, and now it is in a situation where it is not easy to hold it. However, Ukrainian brigades are working quite actively even in these conditions.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense line is now a little further west. The Russian army, using its superiority in manpower, equipment and aircraft, is trying to put pressure along the entire new defense line. Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke are settlements where fighting has been going on for a long time. They are not only trying to put pressure.
The Russian troops did not capture the village of Berdychi. They attacked and entered the center of the village, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushed them back. There are many water areas near the settlement. It's not really easy for the Russians to get there. In addition, the Ukrainian military operates effectively there. On Friday, there was information that another Russian group that tried to attack Ukrainian troops was destroyed near Stepove.
Orlivka is an extremely important settlement. AFU Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi thanked the brigades for driving the enemy out of Orlivka. Syrskyi said that some commanders had underestimated the Russian enemy and had limited knowledge of the situation. According to him, conclusions have been drawn. The transfer of ammunition, reserves, and equipment to this area was also ensured. This had a positive impact on the situation.
On March 1, the Commander of the Tavria grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said that Russia is now trying to maximize its manpower advantage. They are using defense equipment for attacks. That is, Russia is trying to use battalion tactical groups in attacks. This is despite the fact that earlier there were single attacks, unit attacks. On the one hand, attacks by battalion tactical groups from the reserves may indicate the exhaustion of stocks and reserves, the use of the most powerful arguments for pressure. On the other hand, they may slightly change the tactics of offensive actions. This can be a rather disturbing element in Russia's actions from the point of view of Ukraine's interests. In any case, this section of the front is now being actively defended with ammunition and trained units, which include the 3rd Air Assault Brigade and the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade.
The situation at the front is extremely difficult. The Russian forces will continue trying to put pressure on Ukraine's defense line. Experts have different opinions on where the next defense line will be and where to deploy troops. Hopefully, these issues have already been calculated, Ukrainian military leaders have heard all the comments on the fortifications, and the next defense lines will be effective enough to deter the Russian enemy.
Krasnohorivka is one of the areas where the Russian troops tried to push the front line. Unexpectedly, with this attack from the south, the occupation forces tried to break through to the settlement. But once again, the 3rd Brigade demonstrated its combat qualities. The Russian aggressors were driven out of Krasnohorivka by two battalions. The situation has completely changed. In fact, trained units, with artillery and support, are able to work wonders on the battlefield.
This is a continuation of Putin's rhetoric in his speech to the Federal Assembly, where he mentioned the missiles that Russia has. The lion's share of these samples will not be brought to mass production. Technologically and technically, Russia is currently unable to ensure the creation of a nuclear-powered cruise missile or to ensure the operation of a laser system that is supposedly already on combat duty. But from the point of view of influencing Europeans, this is an attempt to use nuclear arguments again to influence Ukraine's partners so that they think about whether to help Ukraine.