NATO summit. Why Ukraine peace talks are unlikely before year-end

1. After the war in Iran, the “pre-election” version of Trump reappeared — unpredictable and intimidating. The summit turned into a one-man show starring someone who had just claimed victory in two wars. The other participants (the audience) seemed to agree that, for the sake of Europe’s stability, they should give him an early win. The show played out well, creating the illusion that things were returning to normal.

2. After the end of hostilities in Iran and the stabilization of the Middle East, America returned to negotiations with the EU, where Ukraine is part of these same negotiations. What are these negotiations about? About tariffs, security (nuclear umbrella, U.S. bases, Article 5, and pacification of Russia), and the war in Ukraine.

3. Trump's game is quite clear. He wants to equalize the trade balance with the EU, primarily by buying American weapons and building high-tech enterprises with the EU in the United States. In exchange for the U.S. not withdrawing its troops from Europe and guaranteeing compliance with NATO Article 5. In fact, this summit, or rather the promise to spend 5% of GDP on defense, was the first step toward this agreement.

4. But two more issues remained outside the spotlight. The first of them is tariffs. There are two approaches: introducing high tariffs (30% and above) on European goods, or eliminating all tariffs altogether (a concept proposed by Musk, incidentally). Macron tried to raise this issue, but Trump did not support the discussion (triumph does not involve complicated negotiations). But being serious — tariffs in exchange for security are becoming the main topic of EU–US negotiations in the coming months.

5. The second issue, which was not even discussed, was Dmitriev's proposals, voiced in Riyadh. In short, Russia proposed that the United States create trading houses that would sell sanctioned goods to the EU under the Russian flag. This is a tempting proposal for the United States, but it is strongly opposed by Europe. It is possible that Trump will also try to link this story to tariffs.

6. This is all important for one reason: the Americans need Russia as a bogeyman for Europe to negotiate with the EU, and therefore Washington is not going to increase pressure on the Kremlin for now, although it will not ease the previous sanctions.

7. Unless something unexpected happens, negotiations with European leaders are expected to wrap up in a few months — around October or November. After that, Trump is likely to start peace talks on Ukraine and, most likely, open negotiations with China as well. At the same time, it's almost certain that weapons will continue to be sold to Ukraine throughout this period.

8. There’s one major problem in all of this: how to ensure Ukraine doesn’t get pushed out of the U.S.-EU-Ukraine negotiation triangle. The success of any peace talks on Ukraine will largely depend on how the Europeans connect key issues — like tariffs and security — with the broader negotiations. 

9. It’s also important to remember that the U.S. doesn’t have as many ways to pressure Russia as people often think. For example, the much-talked-about 500% tariff law is largely a myth (it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to fully enforce). The only country that can truly influence Russia is China. But China will only apply that pressure once it enters into clear, structured negotiations with the U.S. — and those talks are unlikely to begin until after the U.S. wraps up its negotiations with the EU.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.