Situation on right bank of Oskil River, Ukraine's Kharkiv region, changes significantly. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Frontline situation - Kupyansk sector

So, there's good news. Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers have destroyed the Russian military's bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region, as reported by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff.

Let me remind you that on November 24, Russian forces managed to cross the Oskil River and capture positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Novomlynsk. In that area, the Oskil River is not very wide - about 50 meters across. Additionally, the river curves toward the bank occupied by Russian forces and features challenging terrain with high chalk cliffs. However, near Novomlynsk, there is a section where it was possible to cross without encountering these steep banks, which the Russians exploited to seize positions in Novomlynsk and establish strongpoints. This section is located 20 km from Kupyansk, and it was the first area where the Russians successfully crossed the Oskil River.

Yesterday, December 3, the situation has fundamentally changed. There is a video of the soldiers of the 8th Separate Assault Battalion of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade Edelweiss installing the Ukrainian flag in Novomlynsk. And there are details of what exactly happened in this area of the front.

More details were provided by Deep State experts, who described what exactly happened. At first, a group of BMP-1, M113 armored personnel carriers, supported by a tank, moved to the positions held by the Russian troops. The Russians were on the defensive. Then there was a second wave of Ukrainian units advancing. The Russian soldiers were knocked out of a certain number of strongholds, after which they began to transfer forces and reserves from other strongholds. 

The Ukrainian second group, taking advantage of the Russian regrouping, struck at their weakened positions. In fact, all the Russian strongholds were knocked out, so they began to flee across the Oskil River, both with and without boats, crossing to the left bank. We can say that the Russian bridgehead ceased to exist in this area. 

But we know that in addition to the bridgehead near Novomlynsk, there was another bridgehead a little further north, near the village of Masiutivka. The Russian troops also crossed the Oskil River on December 1 and tried to gain a foothold there. It is unclear from the report of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff whether the occupiers were driven out of this area near Masiutivka. However, the General Staff notes in its report that the right bank is under the control of Ukrainian Defense Forces. That is, it is likely that the actions to dislodge and destroy Russian troops on the right bank of the Oskil River are wider than just Novomlynsk.

What does this mean? The Russian forces were trying to create a situation where Ukrainian troops would be forced to move additional forces to this area and create a threat to Kupyansk, and then, ideally, to advance along the right bank of the Oskil River towards Kupyansk. We can see that these plans were completely unrealized. The Russians have suffered losses. 

I hope that the occupiers will lose the desire to attack in this area of the front, although attacks on Kupyansk will continue. Currently, about 37 thousand Russian personnel are concentrated there. But this number is not enough for a city like Kupyansk or Kupyansk- Vuzlovyi.

Let's recall the situation in Avdiivka, where the Russian aggressor had to concentrate three armies. In total, 100-120 thousand Russian soldiers were concentrated there to storm and capture Avdiivka. Now the Russian forces are much smaller. I don't think we should expect any changes in their ability to advance quickly to Kupyansk, let alone capture it.

Kurakhove sector

Now let's talk about other parts of the frontline where the situation remains extremely difficult. In these areas, the  is using the advantage in manpower and equipment. First of all, we are talking about the Pokrovske and Kurakhove directions, as well as the area of Velyka Novosilka. The entire Velyka Novosilka - Kurakhove - Pokrovsk arc is 140 kilometers long. This is where the Russian main forces and activity are concentrated.

The Russian forces are trying to form a so-called southern flank to attack Pokrovsk. He managed to capture the village of Zhovte, which was an attempt to create a southern flank for the offensive on Pokrovsk. At the same time, in the event of further advancement to the south, the Russian plans to bypass the Kurakhove direction by crossing logistics routes.

Kurakhove is being attacked from several directions. In the city itself, fighting continues in the high-rise area, where some buildings have been changing hands for a week.

The most dangerous area, in addition to frontal attacks on Kurakhove, is the Russian forces' attempts to gain a foothold and capture Staryi Terny. There are also ongoing battles in the town itself. This settlement is located a little north of Kurakhove, behind the Kurakhove reservoir. Having captured Stari Terny, the Russian plans to threaten Kurakhove from the north and west, as well as to block another logistics route leading to Kurakhove and further towards Zaporizhzhia.

Fighting is currently ongoing in Staryi Terny. Interestingly, the Russian Federation started to use less self-propelled artillery, focusing on artillery. In general, the Russians started to use less UAS in November compared to October. While in October, about 3,900 MRLS were used in a month, in November it was 3,200. That is, the pace and number of uses of these guided aerial bombs by the Russians dropped by about 20%. And since November 20, their use has decreased even further.

So, something is happening with the Russians - either deteriorating weather conditions are hampering them, or long-range strikes on storage bases are working. In any case, this has significantly affected the invader's traditional strategy of using guided bombs along the entire front line.

And now let's get back to Velyka Novosilka, which is also under significant pressure. The Russian forces continue to storm this settlement from several directions. It is known that the occupiers captured the village of Novyi Komar, which is located on one of the three roads that supply Velyka Novosilka. Before that, the invaders crossed the road near Rozdolne, which led to the supply line for Velyka Novosilka. Now, another road has been seized near Novyi Komar, which affects the logistics of supplying Nova Novosilka.

There is another road that leads to Velyka Novosilka from Novosilka, which is located a little bit to the west. And this road has remained the main artery of supply for Ukrainian garrisons holding the line in Velyka Novosilka. Now the Russian troops are attacking towards Rivnople from Novosilka to cut the last road that holds Velyka Novosilka.

I would like to note that these Russian attacks have been going on for a long time, and we must pay tribute to the defenders of Velyka Novosilka who are holding the line in difficult conditions. However, we realize that there are certain lapses in Ukrainian defense that the Russians have taken advantage of. In particular, it is the advance from the east to Velyka Novosilka, when the Russian invaders quickly covered up to 8 km in a week between the Kashlahach and Shaitanka rivers, which emphasizes the need to take defense seriously. 

That is, we are saying that all the roads should be mined, there should be fortifications in those areas where the Russian forces can advance. Because the occupiers took advantage of this weakness and are now attacking Velyka Novosilka from the east. There are Russian movements from the east to this settlement. But the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also ongoing.

In any case, we understand that the direction of Velyka Novosilka - Kurakhove - Pokrovsk is the Russian main priority during this offensive campaign, which has been going on since October last year. The Russian forces are trying to continue using their superiority in manpower and equipment. However, in some areas, such as Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, due to the redeployment of reserves around Kurakhove, the advances the occupier dreamed of are no longer possible. Nevertheless, the invaders will try to use this period of time to push through the Ukrainian defense as much as possible.

At this stage, we will be greatly helped by effective defense, as well as by the changes that are being introduced in the Armed Forces management system. Of course, these results will not be quick, but on December 3, following the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff, Zelenskyy again said in his address that personnel changes in the Armed Forces should add efficiency to the use of our units. We understand that such changes cannot be quick, but this trend is generally positive. We hope that the arrival of effective brigade leaders to senior positions will bring about positive changes.

Military assistance to Ukraine from partners 

I should also mention the support of our partners. Germany provides us with new military aid packages. Yesterday it became known that the United States has provided another military assistance package, which includes a significant amount of weapons for artillery, air defense, anti-tank defense - everything that is essential on the battlefield to deter the enemy's advance. The packages are formed from the Pentagon's stockpile, so these weapons will be transferred fairly quickly. These are exactly the things that should strengthen the capabilities of our units on the contact line.

There are weapons samples that look a bit strange, because the final package for the Ukrainian Armed Forces mentions Raven drones, which have been used by the US Army for 20 years. These drones have a control range of up to 10 kilometers. The first batches of Raven on the battlefield, when they were handed over to us in 2022, had some problems due to the fact that they were very sensitive to enemy electronic warfare. I hope that the new batch of these UAVs will be updated or there will be other versions that are able to operate in enemy electronic warfare.

UAVs made in Ukraine 

Today, we know that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already using a larger number of long-range Ukrainian drones. On December 2, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said that we already have drones with a range of 1,800 km. It was also reported that this year the Armed Forces were to receive a thousand long-range drones, and next year these figures are likely to be increased when we talk about the number of drones being manufactured for the needs of the Defense Forces.