Russia’s priority offensives are not in Sumy region, military observer says

This assessment was shared by Ukrainian military observer Vasyl Pekhno on Espreso TV.

"The primary objective of the occupiers is to advance in the Donetsk direction. We can clearly observe that: a) the advance is ongoing, b) the intensity of fighting in the Donetsk or Pokrovsk sector is consistently the highest across the front, and c) the situation is particularly difficult in the Kostiantynivka area — which also impacts the Toretsk direction.

In reality, our forces are defending a wide, 180-degree sector that includes settlements such as Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Klishchiivka, and Chasiv Yar," he said.

Pekhno emphasized that this amounts to a three-pronged defense with extremely complex logistics, further disrupted by constant attacks from Russian drones.

"And it’s not about the Russians being especially skilled, advanced, or having achieved some exceptional capabilities," he said. "The reality is that logistics on the front line are now extremely difficult — for both sides. The war is evolving technologically, and we're entering a phase where the scale, sophistication, and concentration of drone capabilities will shape the situation on specific sections of the front.

At this moment, the Russians still hold an advantage in the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration area. These advantages are real and objective. They're not attacking Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, or Myrnohrad head-on. Instead, they are maneuvering around these areas — not through traditional encirclement tactics, but by forming lines, pushing toward the rear, and reaching positions from which their drones can sever our logistics routes."

Therefore, the threat in the Donetsk direction remains particularly serious. Military observer Vasyl Pekhno emphasized that the Donetsk axis is Russia’s top priority, followed by the Kupiansk direction.

"Donetsk is the number one priority — that is, the Donetsk region and the eastern front," he said. "The second priority, perhaps unexpectedly, is not the Sumy region. In my view, Sumy is neither a realistic nor an appealing scenario for the Russians. They currently have about 50,000 troops positioned for a potential offensive on Sumy, but they would need at least 150,000 to launch a serious attack.

Zaporizhzhia does have dangerous areas, but overall, the Russians lack sufficient forces there. As for Kherson — the idea of storming the Dnipro and launching an assault across the river is, frankly, ridiculous.

Objectively speaking, the second direction where Russia could achieve success — and where they have recently intensified their efforts and are attempting to create serious problems — is Kupiansk. So, Donetsk remains the first priority, Kupiansk the second. These are the directions we must focus on. Everything else, in my opinion, is secondary," Pekhno concluded.