Russian offensive stalls as casualty ratio hits all-time high — expert

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko shared the information on Telegram.

The Russian offensive is showing clear signs of exhaustion as its summer campaign concludes. In the second week of September, Russian forces managed to capture only 29 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, the smallest weekly advance since the beginning of the year. This figure is a sharp drop from the 54 square kilometers seized in the first week of the month.

While the total number of Russian personnel losses for the week was 6,460, the alarming figure lies in the proportion of casualties to territory captured. The analysis indicates that Russia lost an average of 222 soldiers for every square kilometer gained. This marks a grim new record for the entire duration of the full-scale invasion and is double the rate of the previous week, which saw 112 casualties per square kilometer.

This dramatic increase in the casualty-to-gain ratio suggests a significant decline in the effectiveness of Russian military operations. Kovalenko notes that while September has historically been a month of steady or increased Russian advances since 2023, the current trend points to a "sluggish" and costly end to their summer offensive, providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ukrainian defenders.

• On September 14, Russia’s occupying forces lost 910 troops, while Ukrainian forces destroyed dozens of units of Russian weapons and equipment.