Russia to boost drone production by fall: aviation expert on Alabuga plant expansion

Aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse, a member of the public council at Ukraine's State Aviation Service, shared the information on Espreso TV.

“The Russians have ramped up operations at the Shahed drone production plant in Alabuga since spring. Satellite images show construction of a significant amount of infrastructure — at least 100 dormitories and an expansion of production facilities. As for the dormitories, it can be assumed that up to 40,000 people will live there. This indicates that, on the one hand, Russia is trying to scale up production, but on the other hand, Alabuga is already lacking resources, primarily human. That’s why Russia is building dormitories to attract more people willing to move there and work at these facilities,” Bohdan Dolintse commented.

According to him, Russia has announced its intent to scale up existing production several times over — up to 8,000 drones by the end of the year — to enable massive attacks of up to 2,000 drones in a single night. However, they would need 3 to 5 days to accumulate that number.

“To carry out such attacks, the Russians would need to launch at least 120–130 drones within an hour during a single night — that’s three times more than their current capability. At present, we see an average intensity of 40 to 60 drones. This implies the construction of additional launch sites and an increase in operational crews. The construction of new production facilities in Alabuga will be phased. Initially, workshops that expand production capacity will be built,” the aviation expert noted.

In his view, there will be a production spike by autumn, after which growth will slow down.

“On average, Russia is increasing drone production by about 400–500 units per month. As for the scaling pace by autumn, Russia could raise monthly output of Shahed- and Geran-type drones at this plant from 2,700 to at least 3,500–4,000, along with a similar number of decoy drones also produced in Alabuga,” Dolintse concluded.

• On July 26, CNN reported that satellite images show a sharp acceleration in construction at the Alabuga plant in southern Russia, where Shahed-type drones are produced.