Russia steps up surveillance of NATO in Baltic Sea, Latvian intel warns

Latvia’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) reported the information, according to Delfi. 

“The main goal of these provocations is likely to intimidate and test the response of potential adversaries,” the MIDD stated in its annual report.

The Latvian intelligence report reveals that Russia has stepped up its monitoring of NATO forces, including unauthorized airspace violations and aggressive maneuvers near NATO aircraft and ships. These actions, the report warns, heighten the risk of accidental military incidents in the Baltic region.

In addition to these provocations, Russia is undergoing a major military reorganization. The Western Military District, which borders Latvia, has been replaced by the new Leningrad and Moscow military districts. The Leningrad district will oversee the strategic northwest, including the Baltic states and Scandinavia, while the Moscow district will focus on Central Europe and parts of Ukraine. The report suggests that these changes are a formal response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Despite these reforms, Latvian intelligence notes that Russia’s ability to increase its military presence near Latvia is currently limited, as most of its resources are committed to the ongoing war against Ukraine. The report also highlights that Russia is expanding and reorganizing its ground forces, including the creation of new units and the transformation of existing brigades into divisions. However, the MIDD emphasizes that these changes do not yet translate into a significant increase in military strength near Latvia’s borders.

Looking ahead, the report concludes that Russia’s focus on military reform and its continued war effort in Ukraine will make it increasingly difficult for Moscow to return to a peacetime economy. While Russia plans to grow its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, the MIDD believes it will take years, if not decades, to fully achieve these goals. For now, the intelligence service assesses that Russia does not have the capacity to launch another large-scale ground operation in the region.