Russia likely to attack Azerbaijan in coming years — journalist Portnikov

This opinion was shared on Espreso TV by journalist Vitaly Portnikov.

“I don’t really believe in a hot conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan at the moment, simply because Moscow currently lacks the resources for another war. 

However, very serious economic consequences may arise for Azerbaijani businessmen, Azerbaijani citizens, and Russian citizens of Azerbaijani origin working in Russia. I expect their businesses could be destroyed in the coming weeks and assets redistributed to people close to the Russian authorities. 

I believe this entire situation was orchestrated precisely for that purpose. What we witnessed in Yekaterinburg, and later in other Russian cities, was a redistribution of business and financial flows,” Portnikov explained.

According to him, an Azerbaijani television journalist stated that Azerbaijanis are not respected in Russia; for Russian chauvinists, Azerbaijanis are simply not considered people. They were allowed to earn money in Russia only because Azerbaijan was still seen as a Russian province destined to eventually return to the empire.

"And if we no longer see Azerbaijan as a province but as a country beginning to orient itself toward other states, then after the Second Karabakh War, it became clear that Ilham Aliyev is seeking a strategic alliance with Turkey. Moreover, I believe Vladimir Putin sees Aliyev’s actions as ‘black ingratitude.’ After all, Putin did not intervene in the Karabakh war and gave Aliyev the opportunity to restore Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. That’s how it looks from Putin’s perspective. 

He deliberately punished Armenia so that it would not believe it could be both a democratic country and an ally of Russia. Instead of swearing allegiance to Putin and remaining his loyal vassal, thanking him for these opportunities, the president of Azerbaijan is trying to negotiate with Erdogan, a man who can always be expected to strike deals with the U.S., Trump, and other enemies of Putin," the journalist commented.

In his opinion, given the current circumstances, conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan is absolutely inevitable. The crucial point is not how the Russians behave — they always act the same — but that, unlike before, Azerbaijanis no longer turn a blind eye to this; instead, they actively protest such treatment of their compatriots. 

After the Second Karabakh War, Aliyev cannot afford to ignore the disregard for the dignity of the Azerbaijani state and people. Russia, on the other hand, assumes that Aliyev’s role is to look the other way and not trouble himself, since he is not considered an equal to Putin.

“Now we are hearing from Moscow that Aliyev must publicly apologize to the Russian president if he wants Azerbaijani business to continue operating in Russia. Without such a public apology, without this humiliation of Aliyev, there will be no normalization of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. 

And as we understand, Aliyev will neither apologize publicly nor humiliate himself before the Russian president. Therefore, the conflict will continue to escalate, but for now, it will remain within the economic sphere. When Russia regains sufficient military capabilities, it will, of course, attack Azerbaijan. This is perfectly understandable and is what awaits Azerbaijan and Russia in the coming years. Right now, all Russian forces are concentrated on Ukraine, and Moscow cannot afford another war with Azerbaijan,” Portnikov concluded.