Replaying Cuban Missile Crisis: What Putin is planning

One of Putin’s core complexes is the Cuban Missile Crisis complex. It seems he genuinely believes that if Khrushchev hadn’t turned the ships around back then, history would have gone a different way, and there would have been no American greatness. Khrushchev’s fault lies primarily in this weakness, not (only) in what happened at the 20th Congress.

Everything we see today is another attempt by him to replay the Cuban Missile Crisis in his own way. Only instead of the U.S. and Cuba, it’s Ukraine, Belarus, and Europe, which he expects to be scared and surrender. I repeat, this is just another attempt. Not the first, and not the last.

To better understand Putin’s logic and his “Cuban delusions,” we need to answer why the full-scale invasion in 2022 happened. The answer “to capture all of Ukraine” is far too simplistic. There were three main goals (I have written about this repeatedly, but again):

• A quick, victorious war would allow Russia to become the third pole of the world.
• A quick, victorious war would restore Russia’s unlimited policing functions in the post-Soviet space.
• A quick, victorious war and acquiring 30 million Ukrainians would halt the deslavization of Russia and the erosion of the Russian world in a Muslim non-Slavic environment.

All three goals are impossible to achieve, no matter how the war ends. And the current escalation with Europe is not just psychiatry and Putin’s complexes. It is an attempt to turn back history and, exploiting Europe’s weakness, regain the status of a third world pole.

Now a bit about the outlook:

1. We live in a world where the planning horizon for Putin and Trump does not exceed six months. More or less reasonable forecasts can be made for half a year, maybe trying to peek at the next six months. This greatly complicates analysts’ work and fuels both pessimistic conspiracy theorists (the war will be eternal, and even if peace is signed, it won’t last) and hype-driven conspiracy theorists (there is a global conspiracy and everything has long been decided because our lives follow a prewritten script).

2. Putin’s logic follows the Anchorage agreements, where, in my view, it was agreed that Trump would pressure Ukraine to leave Donbas, help lift sanctions, and receive Russian rare-earth metals (this is a very simplified version, and Trump is very naive if he thinks the rare-earth metals will be handed over so easily).

Rare-earth metals are Putin’s main trump card. Russia’s own technologies are outdated, but he can try to negotiate between China, which doesn’t want the Americans here, and the U.S., which very much wants access. However, he cannot fool both sides indefinitely. One thing to remember: Putin has two options — either he negotiates with the U.S. to diversify his economy, or within a year or two he becomes a technological, then political, vassal of China.

3. Putin is highly dependent on his proactive minority (about 25% of the adult population), which wants Ukraine destroyed.

As an intermediate option to appease this active minority, there could be three things:

• Ukraine leaving Donbas;
• Partial return of Putin to global politics and partial lifting of sanctions;
• Completion of the “cheburnet” (state-controlled internet) as a key factor to restrain domestic dissatisfaction.

4. Putin’s attacks on Europe are not coordinated with China, though they benefit China at this stage. Putin does not intend to conduct any ground operations and believes that within six months, weak Europe will agree to lift sanctions on its own. This is Putin’s main calculation. There is no Plan B or C. It strongly resembles 2023 and predictions of Europe freezing.

Could the Russians come up with a “Plan B”? We cannot rule it out, as the situation is dynamic. But as of now, the calculation relies solely on bluff. Even shooting down a Russian plane entering EU territory would lead to nothing.

5. Everything happening now is acceptable to the U.S. Washington believes the current escalation will make Europe even more compliant. On the other hand, the U.S. fully understands that any drone strikes on EU territory will force them to intervene. And Trump’s recent posts about Ukraine, which some have already called a “pivot,” are actually a kind of warning: “Don’t test us.” The U.S. will turn a blind eye to drones over the EU as long as they don’t destroy anything.

6. China is also watching from the sidelines, waiting for the moment they are finally asked to intervene and pressure Russia. The PRC has its red line: not allowing the transfer of fertile black soil to the U.S., but the main story for China right now is waiting. According to Beijing’s logic, they are meant to be called in to calm Putin. That would be China’s moment to shine.

Source

About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.