Most logical step: Poland prepares to shoot down Russian drones

The Polish Ministry of Defense proposed these changes back in June this year, but in light of the recent drone attack on Polish territory, the review of these crucial amendments for both Poland and Ukraine will be accelerated.

Interestingly, Poland had the legal ability to shoot down Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace without any coordination with NATO until almost February 2022. However, at that time, the Polish government introduced changes aimed at better coordinating Poland’s efforts with NATO. As a result, literally a day before Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine, a paragraph appeared in Poland’s national legislation that effectively made any independent action by the country’s armed forces impossible.

It is possible that the government, led by politicians from the Law and Justice party, hoped for a stronger response from the West to any aggressive moves by Moscow and expected that the U.S. and other NATO countries would promptly defend Poland if its airspace or territory were threatened by Moscow.

"However, it is now becoming clear that the West is in no rush to make any serious decisions regarding the destruction of Russian aerial assets — not only in Ukrainian airspace, but also in the airspace of Poland or Romania. Moreover, there is a tendency to avoid any actions that could theoretically lead to a conflict with Russia."

This creates a paradoxical situation: Russian drones and missiles can enter Polish airspace from Ukrainian airspace, while Poland has no real legal means to take preventive measures to protect its own airspace.

Now, however, the situation could change — potentially returning to a normal state. This is especially relevant in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that European countries should be able to destroy Russian missiles and drones in their own airspace. However, he said nothing about Ukrainian airspace, nor did he clarify whether the U.S. would assist its European allies if they faced the need to destroy Russian aerial targets.

Clearly, establishing a joint drone defense zone over western Ukraine and the eastern voivodeships of Poland would be the most effective and logical response to the recent Russian drone attack on Polish territory. This is particularly urgent given the growing tensions across Europe. Denmark has been under a true hybrid drone attack for several consecutive days, and many in that country believe Moscow is behind the airspace violations. The latest drone attack in Denmark, which led to the closure of multiple airports, targeted military facilities. Denmark’s active support for Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression is also well known.

It is entirely possible that Russian drone attacks on Polish territory could happen again. And this time, they might not be reconnaissance drones, but actual strike drones. One would have to be naive to believe that reconnaissance drones are sent into the territory of a country hostile to Russia (there is no doubt that every NATO country is considered hostile by Russia) purely for sightseeing purposes. No, they are trying either to identify targets that could later be struck by attack drones or to test the air defense response in each specific European country to a drone flying over the facilities Moscow has designated for destruction.

Not long ago, such actions by Russia might have seemed fantastical. Now, we must understand that drones can appear not only from Ukrainian airspace but may also be launched directly from the territory of European countries themselves, as seems to be happening in Denmark. The Ukrainian operation Spider’s Web, which caused significant damage to Russian airfields and combat aircraft, became a real innovation — one that Russian intelligence services could now potentially exploit effectively on European territory.

"The danger to European countries, to their military facilities, and to NATO will grow day by day, month by month, and year by year as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues — a war that no one in the Kremlin has any desire to end."

European countries must therefore be prepared for the fact that alongside the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia’s hybrid war against NATO member states will intensify, particularly against countries neighboring Ukraine and those actively helping Ukraine resist Russian aggression. In this situation, the indecisiveness of NATO’s Combined Command and the Alliance’s fear of direct confrontation with Russia already constitute a threat to the national interests of countries that could be targeted by Russian drones, and in the near future, potentially by missiles as well.

Thus, creating legal provisions to allow the shooting down of Russian drones or missiles over Polish territory is the most logical decision in this situation. If Kyiv and Warsaw can, even without NATO approval, at least mechanically establish a joint air defense zone over western Ukraine and eastern Poland, it would also ensure the safety of Poland itself and the Ukrainian regions covered by this system. Additionally, Kyiv would gain greater opportunities to deploy air defense in the central and eastern regions of the country, which are continuously under attack by Russia’s brutal aggressors.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.