Iran withdraws from IAEA: war isn’t over yet

That is why many modern wars last only a few days. During this time, both sides obtain enough information about the enemy, compare it with their own capabilities, and decide whether to stop the war or continue it.

In the case of Russia’s war against Ukraine, this decision was made by Moscow within the first week. They realized that achieving their goals by military means was impossible. After that, Russia entered into negotiations—first in Minsk, then in Istanbul. But at this stage, the Russians’ dry rationalism ended. It was replaced by fanatical historical phantoms in the mind of one particular Kremlin pensioner—with all the ensuing consequences.

The war between Israel and Iran also provided both sides with enough information within a few days.

"The conclusions from this are simple: either Israel and its allies push the matter to the point of changing the political regime in Iran, or Iran will almost inevitably bring its nuclear program to the creation of an atomic bomb."

The scale of Iran’s nuclear program is such that it is impossible to destroy it completely with strikes. It can be significantly damaged, set back by several months or years. But Iran, having analyzed the data obtained, has come to an obvious conclusion: the only guarantee of its security is an atomic bomb.

Today’s statement by Iran about leaving the IAEA is a direct signal: the war is not over. It may temporarily pause, but the likelihood of its resumption, and in a new form, is very high.

The IAEA is supposed to monitor nuclear programs around the world. Iran definitely has civilian programs (a nuclear power plant) and, likely, a seriously damaged—but not destroyed—military one. Leaving the IAEA means that both of these programs will continue, but without international oversight.

Donald Trump has already announced possible new bombings if Iran resumes its military program. Therefore, it is already clear that the war is not over—because wars do not end with promises of new bombings.

About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian parliament.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.